Strategic defiance or tactical manoeuvre?

Many wonder whether the president’s new-found resolve is a strategic defiance or tactical manoeuvre prior to election.

Trust this government to spring a surprise when least expected. For the past five years that the current political dispensation in Pakistan has been in power, a severe energy shortage has crippled the country’s economy, while impacting adversely on the lives and livelihood of millions.

Though the previous regime bears primary responsibility for failing to appreciate the country’s growing energy requirements and consequently, neglecting this critical sector, there is no doubt that this government had more than enough time to not only formulate a well thought-out plan, but also to implement major projects. Instead, it wasted much time pursuing the rental power plants programme, a blatantly corrupt arrangement, as evident from the Asian Development Bank report, as well as the fact that notwithstanding billions of rupees paid in advance, hardly any power was produced, though scraps of outdated machinery were left behind.

The government also inherited three potential gas pipeline projects, all of which deserved to be pursued with seriousness, though most experts viewed the Iran-Pakistan project as the one which could be achieved with relative ease and was also extendable to both India and China.

Sadly, the project faced severe opposition from the US, not per se towards it, but to any economic cooperation with the Islamic regime, viewed, as it was, as an effort that would weaken the sanctions regime imposed on Iran. In fact, whenever the media reported any initiative in this direction, a US official would immediately advise us to stay away from it, which led to the widely held perception that all our meetings and MoUs with Iran were merely for the media’s consumption. In fact, US pressure was so intense that both China and Russia — which had at one time expressed some interest in leading a consortium to build the project — chose to abandon all such plans.

But with less than a month to go before the end of the current government’s term, the president has taken a major initiative to enhance economic cooperation with Iran massively. To this end, he paid a state visit to Iran, where he met with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and also called on the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the course of which the two sides were reported to have highlighted the importance of the pipeline project, pointing out that “the international and regional players have tried in vain to prevent an expansion of Iran-Pakistan ties but the people have learnt how to act against enemies of Islam”. President Asif Ali Zardari also proposed a free trade agreement between the two countries, easing of visa restrictions and revisiting tariff and non-tariff trade barriers. There are also reports to the effect that the presidents of the two countries have agreed to jointly perform the groundbreaking ceremony of the $7.5 billion gas pipeline project, at the Iran-Pakistan border, on March 11. Pakistan may also agree to the Iranian offer to build an oil refinery near the port city of Gwadar.

The president’s initiative, as well as his unequivocal declaration on return that “no power can hinder completion of the project” has been appreciated by many, though it has confused others. The US State Department spokesman responded by warning that “if the deal is finalised, it would raise serious concerns under the Iran Sanctions Act”. This was followed by a Pakistani official claiming that we are “least bothered about US sanctions”! If these bold assertions testify to the recognition, even if belatedly, of the nation’s “sovereignty and independence”, they deserve to be welcomed. But some scepticism is not unmerited, when it is recalled how this government publicly condemned the drone attacks while privately praising them. Many are thus left wondering whether the president’s new-found resolve is a strategic defiance or a tactical manoeuvre prior to the elections to cover himself in the nationalist mantle, while bequeathing to the next government this huge irritant in Pakistan-US relations.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 5^th, 2013.