Rupture of PPP-MQM alliance appears all but scripted

ISLAMABAD:

There were times when reporters slumped in their exclusive lounge would jump up and dash excitedly to the press gallery if some Muttahida Qaumi Movement legislator had taken the National Assembly floor to speak during politically tense days. But on Friday morning, it was laughably different.

As soon as the session started, the MQM’s Asif Husnain forced the chair to let him speak on a point of order only to deliver a long, desultory speech to praise the local government system that Musharraf had introduced with his mentor Tanvir Naqvi’s input. After introducing this system, its khaki creators even amended the constitution to ensure it stuck.

Husnain was not wrong in repeatedly referring to Article 184 (1), which enjoins regular local body elections. But by doing so, he seemed shamelessly turned a blind eye to the fact that throughout the last four years the MQM has worked as a formidable partner of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), both at the centre and province. That makes his party an equal partner in crime for not executing this clause. The MQM cannot just pass the blame on to the PPP.

Little wonder then that most reporters ignored Husnain with a smirk and no legislator was pushed to prevent his party from walking out.

It’s time the MQM realised that parting ways with the PPP so close to election is considered nothing but scripted by the media and public. The cunning separation was ostensibly staged to help both parties mollify their bitterly divided cadres. Both parties feel certain they will emerge as main stakeholders in Sindh after the election. We should not be surprised if they form another coalition.

More seriously, the MQM should be more worried about its leverage than the PPP. After the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, rural Sindh stood with this party with a vengeance in 2008. This allowed the PPP to form the government in Sindh without any outside help for the first time since 1993.

As an ardent Machiavellian, however, Zardari firmly decided not to fly solo. He knew full well how extra-parliamentary forces had destabilized both of Benazir’s governments in the 1990s by influencing the MQM.

Chanting the mantra of ‘reconciliation,’ he kept pampering his ‘allies’, eventually frustrating his core constituency. The ‘nationalists’ had enough material to label him a “traitor to Sindh”. Eagerly taking cover under the mighty wings of Pir Pagara they now appear certain to punish the PPP by defeating its candidates. But now that the old local government is back, the wind has been taken out of the sails of the anti-PPP lobby. The PPP-sponsored candidates may still lose in some constituencies, but any chances of a ‘wave’ against this party were nipped in the bud by the party MPAs the other day.

Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan have failed to sell any third option to Sindh’s voters. The MQM continues to feel comfortable with its vote bank, even though challenges to its turf are surfacing from fringe groups. These armed mafia-like groups seek legitimacy in the name of religion, sect, language or ethnicity.

Ever after retaining its electoral strength during the next election, the MQM will find it difficult to control Karachi without aligning with any mainstream party. As the PML-N and the PTI are just not willing to deal with it, the PPP is the only option left. Now it will be Zardari’s turn to take full advantage of MQM vulnerabilities.

The street-smart managers of the MQM have instinctively sensed their limits. Their nominated governor, Ishratul Ebad, has gone to London to consult leaders there. In the meanwhile, as acting governor, Nisar Khuhro signed the bill restoring the ancient local government system. For days to come it seems the MQM and the PPP are in a win-win situation, notwithstanding their feigned indignation before the cameras.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 23^rd, 2013.