Back to the past

As polls approach, the rise of new political entities — notably the PTI — seems to have taken something of a nosedive.

As polls approach, the rise of new political entities — notably the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) — seems to have taken something of a nosedive. In contrast, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) appears to be on an ascendant note, most notably in its bastion in Punjab and also in other areas.



According to a survey conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI), the PML-N, the main opposition party, has seen an increase in popularity on both the national and provincial levels. The survey, the results of which have recently been released, took place in November, and was designed to take note of ethnic, lingual, gender and age difference. According to the results from a survey of 4,997 people, 32 per cent of the respondents said they would vote for the PML-N in the National Assembly elections, compared with 28 per cent in the last IRI survey conducted in July-August 2012. This gain seems to have come mainly at the cost of the PTI, which saw a decrease in support from 24 per cent in July-August 2012 to 18 per cent in November 2012. The ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) remains stable at 14 per cent, but its leaders may be concerned by the fact that both the PML-N and the PTI remain ahead of it in terms of overall support. The PML-N also remains the most popular party in Punjab, according to the survey, with 49 per cent support — a six per cent increase compared with the previous survey; the PTI’s support in the province declined by eight per cent. Results from other provinces were mixed, with the PPP, predictably enough, the most popular party in Sindh with 32 per cent support, followed by the MQM with 16 per cent. Rather astonishingly, the PPP also emerged as the most popular party in Balochistan while the PTI maintained its lead in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

The findings are, of course, interesting, as a reflection of mood. But we must remember that pre-poll surveys, notably in the subcontinent, are often far from reliable — while the ‘first past the pole’ voting system will, of course, also have a major say in who takes the most seats at the end of the polling process.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 30^th, 2013.