Neither pre-emption nor provocation

President Obama and the newly-elected Chinese leadership must demonstrate greater sensitivity to each other’s concerns

The much touted US-China economic partnership popularised as the G-2 is already a distant memory. Instead, their rivalry is assuming alarming proportions, worrying the region and beyond.

The vigour and resolve with which the US has been promoting its “pivot” to Asia was again evident only days after President Barack Obama’s re-election, when he embarked on a much-publicised visit to Myanmar, a country long perceived as close to China. He next travelled to Cambodia for the ASEAN and East Asian Summits, where Sino-US differences threatened to overshadow the economic cooperation agenda.

While China received strong support from hosts Cambodia, others such as The Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia and Brunei, with American encouragement, sought to promote policies aimed at “internationalising” the South China Sea issue. China, however, resisted any initiative inimical to its interests, arguing that a bilateral issue between China and other nations could not be taken up in the ASEAN forum. Even Premier Wen Jiaobao stepped in to assert that outside interference in the region’s affairs would be resisted.

The US, however, reiterated that the Sea, being one of the world’s busiest trade routes, was of strategic importance to her and others. ASEAN effort to promote talks on a Code of Conduct to reduce risk of conflict over the Sea, which may contain huge reserves of oil and gas, failed to find favour with China.

What has added urgency to the simmering dispute is the deterioration in Sino-Japan relations and increasing evidence of Japan veering away from its traditional pacifism. This is denied by Tokyo but it is not only offering military aid abroad, its warships, too, have begun conducting joint exercises with friendly countries, which Japanese officials acknowledge is due to its increasingly contentious relations with China. The US and some South Asian countries have welcomed Japan’s tentative moves towards becoming active militarily in the region as part of its strategy to encourage others to beef up their defence forces, but diplomatic observers are alarmed about this trend. In recent months, both Japan and China have acted in ways that can only be described as unnecessarily provocative, with little effort being made by either to find diplomatic solutions or to defuse the situation.

Accusations and counter-accusations were not merely the product of elections in the US and change of leadership in Beijing, but arise from differing perceptions of each other’s strategic goals. The Chinese suspect that Washington’s support to countries such as Vietnam, Japan and the Philippines in their territorial disputes with China represents a plan to reinforce diplomatic relations to graduate into defence ties, so that these linkages become an important element in the strategic goal of China’s containment. Washington, on the other hand, is convinced that China’s unprecedented economic progress has not only enabled it to engage in massive military modernisation but also injected an element of belligerence in its foreign policy. Hainan’s announcement that it has the right to intercept ships in the Sea will raise already heightened concerns.

Undoubtedly, Sino-US understanding is critical to the health of the global economy and to peace in a sensitive region. While neither country is talking about confrontation, their focus seems to be shifting away from recognising the importance of their cooperation. They also admit that their differences go far beyond those related to currency and trade, possibly morphed into strategic rivalry, which if not handled with maturity and restraint, could lead to a situation that could hurt them and the region as well.

It is incumbent on both President Obama and the newly-elected Chinese leadership to demonstrate greater sensitivity to each other’s core concerns. Accusations and allegations may satisfy national egos but the demands of peace and prosperity for a critical region and far beyond point to the importance and urgency of avoiding temptations of pre-emption, as well as perils of provocation, while working assiduously to reset the tenor of their ties.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 5^th, 2012.