Run-up to the US elections

For Pakistan, it will make very little difference which candidate ultimately wins the election given their similarity.

The third and final US presidential debate between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney was a curious affair. Both men clearly dislike each other, have scant regard for their opponent and did not shy away from anger and sarcasm during the debate. Yet, listen closely to what they were saying and it becomes apparent that they agree on a lot more than they disagree. Both candidates agreed that starting to withdraw troops from Afghanistan was a wise idea and neither wants to get embroiled in a conflict in Syria. Most importantly for us, both President Obama and Romney are wholly committed to drone strikes in Pakistan. Romney tried to differentiate himself from President Obama on his Pakistan policy by claiming he would attach strings to the aid given to Pakistan but seemed unaware that this has already happened under the terms of the Kerry-Lugar Bill.

Foreign policy has barely been a blip in this election both because of the tiny substantive difference between President Obama and Romney and also because elections are settled on economic, not international, issues. In that regard, it will be of little significance that President Obama was clearly superior in this debate. Most polls still show him with a minuscule lead but the gains Romney made after his commanding performance in the first debate have stuck for the most part. The election is too close to call and may just come down to the results in a single state or two, with the battleground state of Ohio being of particular importance.

For Pakistan, it will make very little difference which candidate ultimately wins the election. Traditionally, Republicans have maintained warmer ties and given more aid to Pakistan but have also been more comfortable dealing with our military dictators. That history will not matter too much, though, since there is a bipartisan consensus in Washington that Pakistan is brimming with rogue actors and that a military option, in the form of drone strikes, is completely necessary. The military and civilian governments will breathe a sigh of relief after both candidates rejected the debate moderator’s proposal that the US “divorce” Pakistan. The aid spigots will remain even if there is a change of guard in Washington.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 24^th, 2012.