Balochistan and the upcoming elections
The moderate National Party (NP), which boasts about its middle class composition, has publicly acknowledged that it committed a “blunder” by boycotting the 2008 elections because they were immediately replaced by local rivals from the Balochistan National Party-Awami (BNP-Awami). In March 2009, the NP eventually returned to parliament by getting its leader, Hasil Bizenjo, elected as a senator with the help of the PPP, the PML-Q and some independent MPAs.
The Balochistan National Party (BNP) has still not decided to contest elections but its decision is very critical. The BNP, headed by former chief minister Sardar Akhtar Mengal, is caught up in a dilemma for three reasons.
Firstly, Baloch armed groups oppose the idea of elections, integration and reconciliation with Islamabad. The BNP is not a contributor to the armed insurgency. Street politics is its strongest point and a decision to participate in the elections will directly pit it against the hardline Baloch groups. Secondly, the party fears its exiled president will be assassinated on his return to Pakistan, just like Habib Jalib, the party’s secretary general. Opposition to General (retd) Pervez Musharraf had landed Sardar Mengal in a Karachi jail for 20 months. Thirdly, the BNP blames the security establishment for creating anti-nationalist underground armed groups such as the Baloch Musla Defai Tanzeem to attack the anti-government nationalists. This group has killed several senior BNP leaders, including three members of its central committee. It seems impossible for the BNP to run a safe election campaign under constant fear of assault and disruption by armed groups allegedly affiliated with the intelligence agencies.
The BNP will probably participate in the elections only if powerful elements in the security apparatus assure them that no more attacks would be carried out on the party’s leaders and activists during the election campaign. Participation in the polls, nonetheless, does not guarantee nationalists’ landslide electoral victory. They are very likely to lose for the following reasons.
The nationalist parties have not exercised street politics for the past many years. The absence of key leaders such as Sardar Mengal of the BNP has totally disconnected the ordinary Baloch voter from their leaders. These parties also did not show any interest in the preparation of the voters’ lists. Their rural voters are not even listed nor do many of them possess computerised identity cards. Political parties normally require at least one year to prepare for the elections whereas the Baloch nationalists do not seem to have fully completed their homework yet.
Furthermore, there is simply no ‘sympathy vote’ in Baloch districts for the nationalists. The ‘kill and dump’ policies, for which intelligence agencies and the Frontier Corps are blamed, have increased support for armed groups among ordinary Balochs. They look at parliament and elections as a source of further strengthening the power of the state. The relatives of the killed or disappeared political activists support insurgent groups, instead of pro-parliament parties, in reaction to the killing of their loved ones.
Finally, Baloch tribal chiefs from the PPP, the PML-Q and the BNP-Awami have accumulated so much wealth from the official treasury that it is practically impossible for the nationalists to have the same amount of finances to run election campaigns. Access to official machinery further benefits the current legislators against the nationalists.
The elections will be a futile exercise if there is no change in the current composition of the Balochistan Assembly. The status quo did not change after the 2008 elections and a similar outcome this time will further block a ballot-driven solution for the Balochistan conflict. The government should make sure that intelligence agencies do not finance and influence the elections so that neutral results are achieved.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 31st, 2012.
COMMENTS (10)
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Balochistan's problems will never be solved by elections because the center of power rests in GHQ. The only way for Baloch to solve their problems is to continue their war of liberation against the occupying forces of Pakistan until they achieve their independence. Ameeri
Politics in Balochistan mainly revolves around personalities rather than political parties. Out of 30 districts of Balochistan 9 and a half districts are Pashtoon dominated districts.In the rest of the districts like Jahl Magsi,Jafferabad, Nasirabad, Bolan, Kohlu, Dera-Bugti, Chaghi,Khuzdar,Mastung, Lasbella,Kharan,Barkhan, Kalat,Sibi,Washuk are personality dominated districts where elite families matters not the nationalists or political parties. In my opinion only 5 districts are open for the nationalists and other political parties.
The mainswtream nationalist parties decision of non-participation in 2008 election is generally viewed as an apolitical decision which took a heavy political tool on the province. It is believed and rightly so that the taste of pudding is in eating. Having tasted this unsavoury decision which brought about in its wake untold miseries, tribulation and torment it would be unwise and apolitical again to repeat the uncalled for mistake. It was myopic decision equivalent to inviting political foes to occupy the political space that have painstakingly been protected for decades. Boycott as means has never worked out to achieve the end. And as an end itself is not an end at all. As a case in point the most famous election boycott that the world know of is that of Kashmiri poltiticians and the consequences of this ill-thought-out decision is for everyone to see. This inexpedient decision has contributed to prolong the predicament of Kashmiris. The way the people of Balochistan were governed during these last four and half years was an insult of governance and affront to those who were supposed to be governed. It would tantamount to be an insult to injury if the same corrupt and inept lot is privileged with a walk over. The poor and wretched people of Balochistan deserves a better deal than the vicious ones they have had for the last one decade.
Honestly say nothing will be happen like before it is not a war for rights it is war for demands .. so far just innocent Baloch peoples are losing their precious life and so called champions of Independent and human rights sitting abroad and being rich in name of those innocent Baloch.
Sardar sahib and his Father twice selected as cheif minister but what happened later,still going in Pakistani Parliament is not a wise decision.When1997 Sardar Akhter Mengal was in majority what happened,is he governed according to his wish?.His government was finished only he protested on nuclear tests according to him.So those who will take part in elections in these conditions will dig their own political grave.
It is an important opportunity for Pakistan to bring Baloch back in its fold by holding free and fair elections in Balochistan. Baloch should also participate in elections and renounce violence. They should realize that separation from Pakistan will do no good to them. They should struggle to get rights while remaining within the fold of Pakistan.
Situation will come a bit closer to normalize if nationalist parties (BNP-M, NP, PKMAP) win the upcoming elections in their respective districts instead of wealth thirsty PML Q and the current Sardars sitting in Parliment.
WE BALOCH don't want any elections! We want only rights!!! Right to live which v don't have in pakistan!
Anti State elements just thrive on voilence. People like us are fed up with their destructive politics and we donot any of these people to represent us.