It’s not that the realisation that there is a need for a change in Pakistan’s political scenario has receded, but the hopes — since the Multan by-election earlier this month — seem to have dissolved somewhat into fears and scepticism.
President Asif Ali Zardari is a great planner. He has been planning his course probably since after his marriage and certainly since 1988, the year that his wife emerged triumphant despite great odds stashed against her by what is known as the establishment. Devious plans too often tend to go astray and President Zardari has had his share of relatively tough times — his VIP status and vast funds normally guaranteed that steering his path through various forms of imprisonment (mostly in hospitals) was veering on the comfortable. That is not to deny his great staying powers, fortified by his clever-in-the-extreme forward planning.
His major and most valuable breakthrough was presented to him on a gilded platter by a desperate General (retd) Pervez Musharraf who, hand in hand with his European and American allies and his DG-ISI (now President Zardari’s COAS), thought up and implemented the criminal, unlawful and immoral National Reconciliation Ordinance. That was President Zardari’s jumping block and coupled with the tragic assassination of December 2007, propelled him into a very hot and safe seat. (In keeping with Pakistani tradition, the assassination remains unexplained, though the widower on more than one occasion has said that he knows exactly who the culprits were — but the knowledge cannot be shared with the nation).
From the leadership of the PPP, covering for his son, who was conveniently fitted out with the Bhutto name, to the presidency and guaranteed immunity was no difficult leap. It all happened smoothly — Musharraf being no match for President Zardari’s street-smart out-manoeuvring. That could be counted as his first real triumph. From then on, in masterly fashion, he has skilfully dealt with every political opponent that has cropped up, neutering the greedy and ambitious with alliances and coalitions. He has manipulated many of his party members so that he is sure of complete loyalty where it matters. The mighty military has succumbed, its leadership being vulnerable to charges of the usual misdemeanours, coupled with unfortunate errors. It is solely the Supreme Court which is putting up some sort of resistance to his admirable machinations, the ‘immunity’ being the top priority and to blazes with anything else — constitution and law included. And the ‘carefully choreographed’ apology offered by the US is a vast fig leaf behind which he can lurk and still deliver what is expected of him.
So now, he is sitting pretty. Thus far, elections are not part of President Zardari’s immediate planning and some commentators have it that he will manipulate matters quietly and cleverly from behind the political stage, so that they are extended even beyond March 2013, on to the time when both the COAS and the CJP have completed their tenures. And along the way, when his five-year term expires, he will ‘arrange’ to be re-elected as head of state — by that time a totally discredited position.
And who’s to stop him? Is there anyone, in or out of uniform, fit and able to do so? Elections are a sham, the new chief election commissioner notwithstanding (some wits have it that he is a consensus candidate because he is 84 years old). The band of seasoned relics that form the general political leadership to whom elections are the healthy lashings of the butter they heap on their bread can easily outfox any and all members of the Election Commission. They have been at it for years and their extended families are fully and ably trained.
This is a grim scenario for anyone waiting for a miracle in the form of change. President Zardari and his band are entrenched, as are his opponents (apart, perhaps, from Tsunami Khan), when it comes to ballot boxes. But then, as for President Asif Ali Zardari, there is the old saying — the higher the rise, the steeper the fall.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 28th, 2012.
COMMENTS (16)
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@Shakir Lakhani
A. Q. Khan says that he was acquitted by the Dutch court on appeal.
Fact is the Dutch Court set the conviction aside on a 'technicality'. The Court felt that the 'notice was not served properly'. Please note that the Court neither quashed the charges nor rejected the evidence.This was the time when Pakistan became bosom ally of US/NATO in Afghanistan. See page 13 of the link below. http://www.nirs.org/les/khanreportfinal29404.pdf
And now cut back to 2004, and the Television appearance of Dr A Q Khan.
Need I say more.
@ observer: A. Q. Khan says that he was acquitted by the Dutch court on appeal.
@Shakir Lakhani: If they were convicted by the Swiss Courts then why is the PCO CJ so stubborn to open the case again? A person cannot be tried and convicted twice for the same crime. The case was actually going to be tried in a real court not by the magistrate on the appeal. However, Senator Saif and Justice Malik Q who have concocted this case totally undone it by sending a letter to the Swiss court. That is the reason the PCO CJ wants the letter discredited and a new letter written. Saif and MQ know the ins and outs of the case and their testimony can easily undo the case which was already in the appeals process. Regards, Mirza
@Shakir Lakhani
A. And A Q Khan was convicted by Dutch courts, so?
B. Were the convictions in Swiss Courts for 'Corruption'? Or was it for charges other than corruption? Was it under Swiss Laws or Pakistani Laws?
C. Please remember in most countries people with more than one wife will get convicted for bigamy, does that apply to Pakistan?
D. If everything else is an 'international conspiracy to defame the citadel of Islam", why not the Swiss cases? Remember at the time of the Swiss 'conviction' Gen Commando was the bosom buddy of George Dubya Bush.
@ observer: Zaradari & BB have already been convicted by a Swiss court (read "Triumph of criticism by Anwer Mooraj in today's Express Tribune), therefore, Zardari should not have been allowed to contest elections.
@elementary
From Nov 1996 to Nov 2004 and again briefly in Dec 2004. That makes it a little over 8 years and I stand corrected. The issue is, in these 8 years Nawaz Sharif and Musharaff Governments could not prove any charges.
@mirza, you are insane.
@observer: Could you tell us the dates of Zardarari's detentions please. As you mentioned it is ten years. thanks.
Pervez Musharraf who, hand in hand with his European and American allies and his DG-ISI (now President Zardari’s COAS), thought up and implemented the criminal, unlawful and immoral National Reconciliation Ordinance. That was President Zardari’s jumping block
This indeed is a funny statement. But I am not laughing, allow me to explain why.
NRO was instrumental in withdrawing cases against thousands and amongst those thousands were a couple of PPP politicians. And the withdrawal of cases did not automatically translate into votes. The PPP still had to be voted by the people, the President's 'jumping block' if any, was this election and the people's votes, not NRO.
Now contrast this with another artifice of Gen Musharraf, the PCO, this beautiful artifice packed off a whole lot of Justices to oblivion, and brought the 'Youngest CJP' to the fore. The brilliance of this artifice is that it did not even require any votes and support from the people. The CJP, so appointed, now pontificates about being a 'representative of the people'. What a travesty!
Even if we do concede that NRO benefited some politicians 'selectively', so did the PCO in the case of some Justices. How come this 'jumping block' is immune from dismantling?
Partisanship masquerading as honest scholarship, is the worst form of chicanery, in my book at least.
@Mirza: I think you might have misunderstood the context of the issue under consideration. All the respected writer mentioned is that there might be a reason to appointing the judge under consideration despite his immaculate reputation and tall stature. Even the best of people can have a blind spot because of the human constraints they might be exposed to. Why is it such a big deal? As far as the issue of possible electoral manipulation plans in the wings, Zubeida Mustafa in Dawn also published a detailed article on the issue recently. Unless the country is being ruled by saints, is there a harm in erring on the side of healthy skepticism?
Author. The whole building of our power structure is staying on wrong foundations. Nothing will change even after zardari is gone.The Zianiosed constitution is only stenghning status quo forces.The first and foremost thing is to demolish this building before we associate any hope to politicions to bring this country out of deep crisis.A civilion government too weak to bring murderer of it's governer to justice shows how powerfull are the forces behind this act of murder.And surely these anti democratic forces will never let this present power structure to go.NRO or no NRO should not be a debat but free hand for civilions should be our utmost cry because never in our history have the civilions free hand,
This is the most vitriolic, negative and antidemocratic Op Ed in the ET. This borders high treason in its hatred and preaching against an elected govt and the set up. It says "Is there anyone, in or out of uniform, fit and able to do so? Elections are a sham, the new chief election commissioner notwithstanding" This is the most pathetic and defeatist attempt to incite the much maligned generals to come forward once again and commit high treason. Why would the SC not take notice of this invitation to the generals? The Op Ed attacks the most honest judge who is trusted by everybody but the author. He may be old but he is not going to do the physical work to be a young man. Justice Ibrahim is a Titan among the judges in Pakistan and the hatemonger cannot even see him eye to eye. The problem with most defeatist and doom and gloom people is they cannot see any benefit in an election even under a neutral CEC and caretaker govt. The losers are always losers no matter what the margin is. Hence the invitations to the deep state for act of high treason. Like the PCO SC, its supporters still dream of aiding and abetting high treason. Keep dreaming.
Amina Sahiba - Unfortunately so, but I think you are right. Current elite of the country is so well entrenched that no matter what checks are put on them, they will somehow manage to rise above the interests of the nation as triumphant. However, there is still a hope. Many developments such as that of rise of new political parties, media, and judiciary are putting enough chinks in their armor that they will not be able to stop the tide of change for long.