The first challenge is to end power outages, which are sparking riots, weakening industry and accentuating the unemployment problem. The core of the power crisis lies in three facts: (a) As much as 82 per cent of total electricity production is now oil-based when oil prices are astronomically rising. By contrast, a decade ago, only 50 per cent of electricity output was fuel-based with the remaining 50 per cent coming from much cheaper hydroelectric power. Consequently, the average cost of electricity has become so high that the government simply does not have the fiscal capacity to provide the subsidy necessary to supply electricity at a price which most consumers can afford. Indeed, increasing oil-based electricity would involve doubling the price of the additional supply. (b) A related problem is billions of rupees of unpaid electricity bills by the provincial governments, semi-autonomous corporations and federal government departments. The recovery of this shortfall prevents the government from paying its dues to the independent power producers who are then forced to cut back production. (c) Institutional weakness combined with obsolete transmission technology results in theft and transmission losses amounting to 30 per cent of the total electricity generated. The long-term solution is to invest in hydroelectric power. In the short-term, apart from improving recoveries, an annual foreign aid of about five billion dollars may be required for the next five years to achieve full capacity utilisation and supply electricity at an affordable price. This means shifting our policy of confrontation with the West to cooperation.
The second challenge is to pull the economy out of recession onto a path of sustained high growth. This means, apart from institutional change, shifting focus away from reducing the budget deficit through economic contraction to stimulating the economy: increased expenditures on physical infrastructure, health, education and training; and public-private partnerships for stimulating small scale enterprises and small farm sectors that could generate employment. This requires changing the composition of government expenditure from non-productive to productive expenditure.
The third challenge is to manage widespread violence and establish order. For this, the government needs to formulate a strategy to combat the al Qaeda and Taliban affiliates, who threaten both Pakistan and Afghanistan. At the same time, the recurrent spasms of violence in Karachi by armed criminal gangs aligned with various political parties and extremist ethnic organisations must be brought to an end.
The fourth challenge is to end a colonial policy towards Balochistan: stop ‘forced disappearances’, abductions, torture and murder of Baloch nationalists and bring them into mainstream Pakistani politics as equal citizens.
These are challenges that must be addressed if Pakistan is to survive and prosper. In this great endeavour, the various organs of the state will have to cooperate and establish a semblance of political stability. Early elections are now necessary. For this, political parties need to agree on an interim government, the Supreme Court needs to exercise judicious restraint to prevent an unravelling of the very political order within which justice is dispensed and the military must persist in its wisdom of refraining from a disastrous coup d’état.
Published in The Express Tribune, 25th, 2012.
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"Early elections are now necessary" i would add "early and transparent elections are now need of the hour". elections based on correct electoral voters list are important too. political parties have to play their positive role to motivate and bring the voters to the poling stations to ensure a sizable turn out otherwise a minority govt. based on 33-37% voters turnout will not be able to cope up with these challenges!
End the power shortage, pull economy out of recession, establish rule of law and bring peace to Balochistan.....please stop rubbing the lamp. Genie is no longer there !!
Great Op Ed. I have written twice to give my kudos but the censorship on the ET got the better of me. All I would add is when most of our budget is spent on army and debt servicing where would the money come from for these economic improvements? After OBL's discovery the US $$ have dried up and there is no hope unless we become open and cooperative. Even the richest countries have to make cuts in their non productive expenses and Pakistan is no Italy, Spain or even Greece! We have to make new choices and priorities the old ones did not work.
Great article. When a nation is ceaselessly fed on contrived fear and obselete ideology by its politicians, media and education its march towards collective suicide is a foregone coclusion. When suicide attacks are being legitimised as virtuous act and the death of innocents is hailed an examplary contribution, the economic and social issues recedes to the background. The scourge of extremism and the consequent anarchy has functionally ruined the economy by scaring away all the investors- local as well as foreign. What we need is to closely and critically look at the policy paradigm we have relentlessly been following for the last three decades. We should not loose sight of the fact that political variables are too intimately related to economic development to be cast aside.
but the question is HOW?
I think judicary is getting backing from military. this is not good.
1) With regard to your statement " For the first time in Pakistan’s history, an elected government has been removed subsequent to a Supreme Court judgment.This indicates the power of an independent judiciary that is vital for a democratic structure"
My question in 1990's democractic government that was kicked off was allowed again to assume power in 2007 elections even when 35m out of 80m votes were fake. This implies there is no check and balalnce system in Judiciary. How come the same people that were disposed were allowed to come into power. To me its incompetence, neglience and impotence on the part of various institutions. Like NAB, election commission, and Judiciary. They have failed to serve the purpose.
2) with regard to your observtion "The fourth challenge is to end a colonial policy towards Balochistan" I would like to revise / add this "Its challange of colonial policy towards whole society not just balochistan" The ruling class with their family memebers elected while many districts in pakistan have no representation.
3) Pakistan is spending 15billion dollars / year on oil imports. With growing unstability in middleeast this will be a real challenge in years to come.
Dr Sahib, Your essay is highly appreciated but do we something at hand to handle these challenges? Academic discussions aside, I don't think we have the capabilities or the will to handle these.When a nation depends too much on some heavenly power, it is a clear indication that they do not have the guts to handle it and that they are not sincere or clear in their aims and objectives. So be it. One day this all will be over.