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Islamabad’s Jinnah Institute in its briefing (July 25, 2011) spelled out Pakistan’s ‘objectives’ in relation to post-withdrawal Afghanistan. The most outstanding point made in the report pertained to India: “Pakistani foreign policy elite accept that India has a role to play in Afghanistan’s economic reconstruction … but Pakistani security establishment [thinks] a reluctance to address Pakistani misgivings increases the likelihood of a growing Indian footprint, and in turn, New Delhi’s greater ability to manipulate the endgame negotiations and the post-settlement dispensation in Kabul”.
Will India get out of Afghanistan after the American withdrawal? From a statement by the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (“we will support the Afghan people”), it appears that it plans to retain its presence in Afghanistan.
The most likely post-withdrawal scenario is that there will be a civil war in Afghanistan. A parallel war will take place between the Afghan National Army and the non-state actors from Pakistan. The US commander in Afghanistan, General John Allen, has told Congress he thought a future 230,000-strong Afghan force, scaled down from a planned 352,000, was enough after 2017. That will historically be the largest army Afghanistan will ever have.
Ahmed Rashid in his latest book Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of Pakistan and the West (Allen Lane 2012) discusses the Afghan Army: “US recruitment policy includes a strict ratio established in 2003 among all ethnic groups. Thus Tajiks could not be over 25 per cent in the army, but in 2010 they constituted some 41 per cent of soldiers and officers in the army, while Tajik officers commanded 70 per cent of the units (P 87).
The Taliban will have 25,000 men, counting on the basis of the maximum mustered so far. The uneven battlefield will be ‘equalised’ by inserting additional fighters from Pakistan. The Tehreek-e-Taliban will raid across the Durand Line, but the manpower it mobilises may not suffice.
Pakistan expects Afghan Taliban, the Haqqani network, Hekmatyar’s Hizb-i-Islami, ragtag warlords of Fata and Malakand to battle an Afghan Army already inclined to defection. But manpower will still be needed to even the scales and speed up defections. The Taliban will be helped by the Punjabi Taliban, of which the Asian Tigers are already aligned to the Haqqanis. The Defence of Pakistan Council headed by the powerful Jamaatud Dawa (JuD) will oblige with more Punjabi manpower. The JuD leader Hafiz Saeed allegedly says he alone can muster 100,000.
Pakistan is home to the armies that will enter Afghanistan but it hardly controls them. Therefore, the blowback from Afghanistan this time will be transformational for Pakistan. It may not survive the ‘fundraising’ by its non-state actors through kidnappings and bank robberies in its major cities. This trend among the state-supported jihadi outfits has been in evidence.
The Taliban in Pakistan have been criminalised. In affected areas, criminals are in the process of becoming Talibanised. Vendettas are carried out increasingly with suicide bombers because Taliban are busy selling their surplus fedayeen. Karachi and Peshawar are already paralysed by kidnappings for ransom. From the current trend in its Defence Housing Authority, Lahore too, is expected to be targeted in a big away.
Pakistan has sought to appease terrorism by becoming anti-American and pro-Taliban. After the withdrawal, a Talibanised Afghanistan will survive only if Pakistan, too, fulfils its promise of becoming a khilafat.
The policy of appeasement will proceed to its logical end. The remaining attributes of the state will fall off, with religious parties, plus madrassas with jihadi capacity, increasingly exercising authority in its name.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 22nd, 2012.
COMMENTS (56)
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Is Islamic History filled with less bloodshed than anyother ? and were the achievements of Muslim Scientists any greater than what was achieved before and after them? and werent the Muslim scientist declared as infidels during there lifetime? Didnt the Islamic civilization fall after it gave up ijtihad "independent reasoning" in favour of institutionalised taqleed "imitation" that we are still doing to this day. Didnt the Western civilization rise only after it took away power from the clergy? What exactly is the Islam and Khilafat you guys are talking about? Is it the one taught by clerics? Is a holier than thou attitude and hatred of all that is differnent all that is needed to become an Islamic Society?
@wonderer: At the moment none of the Islamic countries is following Islam wholly, but there are certain people who are in effort to make it possible through persuading Muslims by logic and reason toward the real idea behind the message of this religion. Currently many Muslims are found entangled in non-Islamic ways and also pre-Islamic customs of there area.....things are in process with a possible outcome to arrive soon.
The author is worried about the taliban but i think as we trible are the wittness of USSR withdrawal form afghistan, thing will come to normal after US withdraw. Because the scenturies which are feeding the taliban with both lathel and non-lethal material will close like in 1990 when USSR withdrawn. There will be no donor to support these scenturies and the talibe infrastructure will collapse and will absorb in ordinary people.
@Iron hand: If at all any nuclear weapons are used by the religious fanatics, there will be no people left to form new tiny states in Pakistan. The response will be overwhelming and the complete obliteration to a man in Pakistan. These are no boasts but that is what happens. Modern nuclear weapons are hundreds of times more powerful than the ones dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The ignorant religious fanatics in Pakistan have no idea what nuclear weapons do.
@Haq: Haq Sahib when the Indian Muslims started talk of the khilafat the ottomans had been vanquished with some help from the fore fathers of Osama bin Laden and the present Saudi Royal Family. The role of the British Intelligence officer Captain TE Lawrence in this is well documented in the Seven Pillar's of wisdom.
Who will be khalifa the Saudi Royal's the Turks or the Iranians or the Pakistani and Indian Muslims referred to as Hindi in the a kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Suggest you read history especially Islamic history and whilst you are at it read Murder of History by K K Aziz.
@G.A.:
…Islam is a religion of peace, progressive thinking and acknowledger of human rights and especially of women’s rights.
Which Islamic country practices the Islam as you define it???
@Ali Tanoli: you changed the definition again? smooth than a fish.
@Haq: You have made excellent comment, totally agree with you. Most of the people commenting here do not look to be having any idea of actual Islam and Khilafat, in this matter it is our mistake that it was never practiced according to its real spirit. What has been happening in Afghanistan in the name of Islam is not the true picture...Islam is a religion of peace, progressive thinking and acknowledger of human rights and especially of women's rights. Unfortunately when the illiterate people accepted Islam they didn't got it rightly and interpreted it according to their own cultural backgrounds. So its never religion but the the people who are wrong in their approach towards it.
Khalifat in Pakistan will make Afghan Taliban look like liberals.
If someone has an in-depth study of AFPAK and USA triangle, the peace in this region is not possible without these three countries working together. The most important thing in achieving this aim is to have complete trust on each other while fighting GWOT but with no back door diplomacy and Intelligence secret games for own interest. The fighting in Afghanistan and KPK is a 4th generation warfare which can't be won only by military might and technology, if that would have been the case USA would have clean swept afghan a long time back. However in my personnel opinion USA will not leave afghanistan completely after investing such huge money and leave afghanistan for civil war with regional powers to shape the end game left by american for there interests. If USA has to leave she will leave some skeleton force behined as americans history suggests they never leave the land which they invades, take example of japan iraq, africa and middle east. What USA government is doing is that they are putting pressure on pakistan to do more in KPK and they themselves trying to break a deal with Taliban which in my opinion is not possible without pakistan being an equal member on peace talk with Taliban.
Why are these mullahs always insistent on Islam as a political force ? Islam is concerned with worship and morals not on state policies or how many ministers to have in a cabinet. We have seen MMA govt in KP and Taliban in FATA they were both a complete disaster.
@Anonymous, This is no Islam what u mention its a tribalism law of Afghanistan and Yamen.
Very likely scenario ................ but the Americans are not likely to forgive or forget their enemies ........... at least not anytime soon ................ there are more things than the Taliban and company have dreamed of !
@Sam The last two times Pakistan meddled in Afghanistan left the fabric of our society in taters and deeply improvised us. Another bout of meddling in Afghanistan may well ruin us. On the the other hand the players that will oppose us in Afghanistan have grown richer as we have grown poorer, resurgent powers with a lot of resources, countries like India, Russia and Iran. The logical course of action would be to improve relations with them, not fight with them. We need their help to improve our economy.
God curse the ones in power who drag us all into Afghan misadventures.
This article is totally wrong on all its assumptions and it neglects to dissect current ground realities in Afghanistan. Khalid Alakozai very eloquently spells out the problems with this piece and the distorted outlook of Pakistani elites towards Afghanistan and its people. It is a shame that Pakistani writers and intellectuals toe the line instead of actually writing well researched articles that are based on facts and not propagating the establishment's propaganda.
Add to the mix that your leverage on the USA will evaporate - that it's likely the USA will keep a number of small but lethal airbases which will continue both drone and special forces attacks - and the wild card of whether America will stop aid or even label you as a terrorist nation with all the sanctions it entails.
@Ali Tanoli
Its a good one hahahahahaha
I guess you are planning to come back and join in the fun with the Taliban.
Frankenstein you raised is the Frankenstein that will take you to your fate!!
So much time lost by Pak Army controlling their uncontrollable mullas. Now Indian footprints are more secure, even US leaves. Now india is in better shape to deal with taliban.
@Haq: Sir Arabs might have given some thing in remote past but way Punjabis ans Pathans have given to world- zero as written in other article 1924 Islamic state or Turk kingdom there is no malookiat in Islam. It will be fun to have your brand of govt. No girls schools No music No tv No female driving Lady cannot leave the house without Muharram No barber shops Every lady has white burqa 4 wives to every one Female cannot go to male doctors Lashes on every square whom u don,t like Chopping of hands Stoning of female who cannot prove rape by producing four credible eye witnesses I wish that people like u go and live in village of Afghanistan and see all those virtues applied to your kith and kin Having said all that I will have no objection if you come to power by vote but not with gun You may have chance having a clean shave Mulla in politics....hypocrisy at best!
@Arijit sharma, No sir i was laughing on the way of Mr Khalid said Kahani style like its gonna happend as it is but forgot pakistan Army is secular forces gonna let that happend?????
An eye opening article. To be honest India may not very much burn itself in the fires of Afghanistan. The scene in Pakistan will just be very depressing. All modernization will be in reversal mode. mullahs will be in total control.There will be Madarsa and there will be Khalifat. India will be disturbed and busy to seal its borders against physical assault that in all likelihood will not be there. China will be tense too. However the modern in Pakistan should begin to look future safe place for their children. Time to leave. India may be a preferred place who belong to non Sunni and non deobandi groups. Next 20 years or so look dangerous for those who do not live by guns.
Basically the author wants to say Veena Malik is smart.
Post 2014, Pak will have little leverage over US and the latter will not be obliged to fund them anymore. The US is also likely to hurt Pak is as many subtle ways as possible for all the arm-twisting Pak has done over the years. Pak will have to face economic hardships and also growing international pressure on Balochistan.
This will further push Pak towards embracing Taliban and the polity will be dominated by the Taliban-supporters. Whatever little vestiges of democratic setup are there, those will wither away.
By 2016, Pak will be a fully Talibanised, with elite of society clamoring to emigrate to western world, selling properties for a song. There will be minor uprisings and civil wars, but Talibans will crush them. Pak will remain a jelly state, wobbling, but never falling.
End is coming for Pakistan!
@haq I think Pakistan is as islamic as it can be, what else you want?
totally disagree the views expressed by the article writer, his prediction,in view of the background,has no firm and strong arguments,it need more research. In the article,history and traditions attributed to people has been overlooked.
I wish the writer had gone a bit deeper into the role India is likely to play. It is well known that India has already helped Afghanistan in building roads, hospitals and even its Parliament House, and Indian involvement in reconstruction is continuing. India has also signed agreements to help train Afghan police and armed forces. India will certainly be there in Afghanistan when the US withdraws, and most probably the future India role will be decided in consultation with the Afghan Government and the US.
Pakistan will be making a grave mistake if it arrogates to itself the right to decide what kind of rulers Afghans will have and who they will befriend. A wiser policy will be to help Afghanistan to obtain all its people wish to have.
Pakistan has no right to decide what kind of relations India will have with Afghanistan. India will not dictate the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan and it would be wise of Pakistan to reciprocate, and desist from using its proxies. Otherwise this matter has the potential to become a serious source of friction, which could result even in serious involvement of India in Baluchistan.
It is entirely up to the wisdom of Pakistan to decide if it needs "Strategic depth", but it has no right to decide that Afghanistan will provide it. If this important matter is not kept in mind Pakistan is likely to suffer unimaginable problems in future. And, the chances for Afghans to live in peace will be as minuscule as that of Pakistanis.
This is just one part of the story. The repercussions of a powerful Taliban and its ideology post-2014.
Has anyone considered what will the World, US in particular behave towards Pakistan? If anyone is thinking US will simply forget about Pakistani double dealings, they are dead wrong.
US will most certainly stop aid, thats a given. But, what also surely happen is Pakistan will be unable to get any sort of financial assistance from World financial institutions, nor will any US ally like Japan or South Korea or Australia come forward to provide assistance. Pakistan will be effectively isolated. All this is surely going to happen.
What might happen is US sanctions, crippling Pakistan.
@Khaled Ahmad
The policy of appeasement will proceed to its logical end. The remaining attributes of the state will fall off, with religious parties, plus madrassas with jihadi capacity, increasingly exercising authority in its name.
At one point the cry was, Muslim hai Tau League Mein Aa.
It is likely to become, Pakistani hai Tau Taliban Mein Aa.
And the leadership will pass on from the likes of Jinnah, Liaquat Ali Khan, Husseyn Suhrawardy, etc to the likes of Mehsuds, Maulana Azhar Mahmood and Malik Ishhaq.
How the mighty have fallen.
@Haq
Pakistan set out to be ‘Khilafat’ as the writer mentions but this was never realised.
In that event, I wonder why did Jinnah, Suhrawardy and Iskander Mirza bother with the office of Governor General/President/Prime Minister? Shouldn't they have simply taken the title of Caliph?
And please dont insult the intelligence of some of us
Is that even remotely possible? 'Insulting your intelligence' that is.
and Islam should be given a change
Keep all the change. Just leave the economy alone.
For the rest, Please refer to @Faraz on this page.
Western educated, liberal minded, incapable of thinking out of the western intellectual yard stick. Pakistan meant to be a progressive Islamic State (not a theocracy) which Iqbal dreamed of and Jinnah worked for but unfortunately he didn't get enough time to accomplish this dream into reality. We had failed to address those suppressed religious sentiments of the society which we are ignoring since we submitted to the neo-colonial masters, and to save ourselves from the embarrassment we feels to not being a copycat of the west, we brought this extremism over ourselves by out casting the fraction of society for the sake of “enlightenment” that has brought nothing but misery and pain to us, you can't import the social and political values from abroad and worked out fine while a huge segment of society is hostile to it, how hard it is to understand? But if you persistent to replicate the system that is alien to our society than be ready for the resistance on every front, you abandoned your values which were the root cause behind the development of the ideology of Pakistan and you are paying for it. Good Luck!
@Ali Tanoli: " ... Its a good one hahahahahaha ... "
You won't be so happy when the Taliban take away your internet and send you to a re-education madrassa.
I am sure if that is the projection ,dont rule out severe restrictive measures in UK for pakistanis as any one can be affliated to the resurgent taliban and maybe with small dirty bomb. Well the same threat in US ( the main enemy of Taliban for revenge) and ofcourse the much sort after punching bag (India ) all under threat .. How will UN and the world react to it ,yes ofcourse through the sanctions and raise the whole living environment to boiling temperature where good suffer along with bad .. Does the good pakistanis really want this ?
dreamer of khilafat would destroy Pakistan like they destroyed Afghanistan. There was never a period in history when these mullah were cause of any uplift or progress in a society.
@Haq
Here is an incomplete list of civil wars/ internal conflicts that occurred during the 100 years of the true Khilafat from 656-750.
Jamal 656, Saffin 657, Nahrawan 657, Kharji movement 657, Karbala 680, Abd Allah ibn al-Zubayr's revolt 680, Battle of al-Harrah 683, Siege of Mecca 692, Al-Mukhtar revolt 686, Kufa revolt against Al-Mukhtar 687, Battle of Deir ul Jaliq 691, Azraqi Khariji revolt 685-699, Ashath’s rebellion 699-701, Great Berber Revolt of 739-743, Al-Andalus revolt 741, Battle of Aqua Portora 742, Zaidi Revolt 740, Yahya ibn Zayd revolt 743, Kharji revolt in Kufa and Mosul 745, Abbasid rebellion 747-750.
Read some history.
Like Iraq, the US is not going to leave Afghanistan in a warlike situation, much to the chagrin of our rightwing. The coalition govt has not spent the time, money and manpower to let Afghanistan go back to Taliban and Al Qaida. In fact the chances of Al Qaida in Afghanistan are the same as Saddam’s family coming back to power in Iraq. The use of Drones is in its infancy and it effectiveness has not been fully tested to its limit. While the US and NATO boots may not be on the soil in Afghanistan (just like they are not in Pakistan if you believe the army generals) the NATO forces can still take care of the Al Qaida and top Taliban leadership just like they did in Abbottabad. These terrorists can run but they cannot hide especially when they are in Afghanistan there would be no military bases open for them.
This analysis makes sense. Anarchy is spreading like a cancer. The armchair analysts tend to blame all ills on the american presence in Afghanistan. That is not a problem. The problem is in fact the non-state actors that are bent on removing the last semblance of humanity left in Pakistan. The State is too scared to take this cancer on and each day that they delay the harder it will become going forward.
I think we are doomed
Dear Khaled sir
great article. my feeling is pakistan should give up its meddling in other countries like Afghanistan, India etc and start working in developing their country. If not world will be a difficult place for them 30-40 years later- with no development, ie.
Now that is one scary scenario. But it seems very possible. It is time that our establishment wakes up from its dreams of grandeur and act in a more responsible and pragmatic way. To that end the first step should be to get the likes of Hamid Gul out of picture.
This scenario might be true if your statistics were correct. The Afghan National Army currently reflects the current composition of the Afghan populace due to huge recruitment efforts in Pashtun areas. After 2001, disproportional Tajik numbers in the officer corps was expected due to many former generals and officers returning to Afghanistan from abroad. As most know, the majority of the Afghan diaspora is Tajik, and they had the necessary skills at the time. According to the Brooking Institute, which updates the statistics in the "Afghanistan Index" yearly, current number indicate Pashtuns making of 44% of the Army and Police, while 42% of the Officer Corps in both these institutions is also Pashtun. This represents the overall percentage of Pashtuns inside Afghanistan. It pains me to see when the director of the "South Asian Media School" uses outdated statistics to make a point. He fails to realize that post-conflict societies rapidly change and adapt, according the societal law. Thus, two years can make a huge difference, ESPECIALLY when updated statistics are available. Did you simply make a mistake, or did you deliberately distort this story to portray an outcome that is in the Pakistani establishment's favor? It is shameful that the Express Tribune, a respected newspaper within Pakistani society would allow such propagandists to publish their articles in their paper.
Excellent and to the point article. Once US is gone, pakistan will feel no need to fight the war and instead will work for its own interest which would be to use taliban come to power against pro-Indian powers in Afghanistan and history will repeat itself the way it did in 1990's. Although this may be good for pakistan but the worst is waiting for afghanistan when taliban are again going to kick women out of schools and workplaces. India will chicken out in few attacks only. PA will not allow taliban to control pakistan and compete and it will strike deal with it by recognizing it as long as they stay friends. Cycle continues.
The author has not taken the cascading effect. What might thought to happen after 2014 may jolly well happen much earlier.
Don't forget about Iran its another enemy of Afghanistan and its just as dangerous as Pakistan
This is such a SHOCKING article...where is Pakistan headed?. It's is crystal clear now that Pakistan supports so many militant groups for interference in neighbouring countries. Pakistan should refrain from this because terrorism is like cancer. It spreads through the whole nation and the only cure in the end is radiotherapy (nuclear-use).
Religious extremism has doomed Pakistan.
A very bleak and likely scenario, bluntly put...Difficult not to agree...
The true end will come when Pakistani nuclear weapons fall into the hands of the religious fanatics, who, undeterred by the doctine of mutually assured destruction, stage a nuclear terror attack against the US, Israel, India or any combination of the three. Then the literal end will truly come for Pakistan. What rises from the ashes will likely be a number of smaller nation states, each firmly under the control of the civilized world. A hard lesson will have been learned by all - that religious fanaticism must never be allowed to blossom again as it did in late 20th/early 21st century Pakistan.
Unfortunately, most Pakistanis (starting from Imran Khan) believe that once the Taliban shifts focus to Afghanistan (which I agree is inevitable), milk and honey will flow in Pakistan, and of course, the Punjabi elements can then be let loose on India once again. Future events will prove that this is irrational exuberance - the world is watching this time.
I am astounded at the level the elite in this coutry is afraid of Islam. Pakistan set out to be 'Khilafat' as the writer mentions but this was never realised. It has been a secular state since it's inception. All the radicalisation in the society we see at the moment, all the corruption, basically everything that is wrong with Pakistan as of now, secularism shlould shoulder the blame. Blaming Islam is only a sign of frustration. The taliban, TTP or any other terrorist outfit should not be taken as a representative of political Islam. The last 'Islamic state' ended in 1924.
And please dont insult the intelligence of some of us by saying that Pakistan will be propelled into the 'stone age'. History shows that when Eurpoe was in their dark ages Muslims reigned supreme in the world and were far ahead technoligically, culturally and socially. Was that stonge age? Or what the Prophet (saw) created that was stonge age?
Please realise that secularism has failed and Islam should be given a change - afterall - acording to the writer thats what the country was made for.
Yes, what the author predicts, a Talibanized Pakistan, is the most likely outcome. Khalifat, will finally come to Pakistan destiny will be fulfilled.
Its a good one hahahahahaha
Author has actual depiction of affairs after NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan, It is the crucial time for the middle class Pakistani ppl, who would not like to see Pakistan as khilafat to rise and fight the policy of talibanisation of society.