Situationer: Open foes, secret friends

In the face of perceived conspiracies, a covert PPP-PML-N pact.

ISLAMABAD:

Recent public whispers about early elections by the leaders of the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) were not just political posturing – they were, according to well-placed sources, a reflection of a background deal with the top leadership of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

According to sources, the top leadership of the PPP and PML-N have struck an agreement on a new political plan designed to maximise mutual benefit, under which both parties have agreed to hold general elections after the approval of the budget this year.

Following the agreed script, PML-N parliamentarians, just after the approval of the Finance Bill 2012-13 (federal budget) in the National Assembly and Senate, will resign from the Parliament – which, in turn, will provide justification for Prime Minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani to advise President Asif Ali Zardari to dissolve the Parliament.

According to the sources, the resignations will mean the hierarchy of the PPP can justify, to its own cadre and its allies, the holding of early elections – the argument being that holding by-elections on such a large number of seats would not be feasible, and would amount to a mini-election in any case. On the other hand, business could not be carried out as usual with so many members missing.

The agreement envisages that, after the president dissolves Parliament, a caretaker set-up will be announced, according to the recently approved 20th Constitutional Amendment.

According to the reported deal between the two parties, the caretakers will hold general elections in the third week of October 2012.

Sources claim that the political package was finalised by Nawaz Sharif and President Zardari during deliberations among their close aides, including Ishaq Dar, Raza Rabbani and Aitzaz Ahsan over the 20th Amendment. Rabbani and Aitzaz both enjoy the respect of the PML-N, and therefore were better placed to negotiate with the opposition on this matter.

Furthermore, both parties felt that the 20th Amendment deal helped clear the political detritus that had helped inflate perceptions that both parties were on the back foot because of the Imran Khan factor for PML-N and the Memo case for PPP, sources claimed.

Both parties have agreed, sources added, to use by-elections to mobilise their party workers and neutralise the pressure from the establishment to paint both parties as corrupt and out-of-touch.

There is also an added sentiment: You stay off my back, and I’ll stay off yours.

According to sources, PML-N has agreed to ease down pressure on the government before the Memogate commission, and, in return, the PPP will reciprocate on the Asghar Khan petition. In addition, while the PPP will help neutralise the PTI threat for PML-N, the opposition will help the ruling party deal with any adverse outcome of the contempt case against the prime minister and the NRO implementation case.

The two feel that this is unique opportunity, says the source – one that would mean that political parties would dictate terms of political transition, which has long been the realm of the establishment and its allies.

A consensus caretaker, and no divide and rule.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 17^th, 2012.