Neighbourhoods of harmony

Afghanistan is by far the most important friction point in Pakistan’s currently strained relations with the United States. Differences on its future and how to get there provide the template for the surprisingly tough coercive diplomacy practised by Washington towards its erstwhile South Asian non-Nato ally; Iran may well harden that template a little more. Traditionally, the United States has always sought to constrain Pakistan’s foreign relations to curb its inclination to escape the parameters ordained for it. Equally, there have been instances such as the opening to China in 1960s and the subsequent quest for nuclear weapon capability where Pakistan violated the imposed rules with a mixture of daring and guile. Now that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has raised the ante about Pakistan-Iran relations in her congressional testimony, Islamabad may be faced with yet another cycle of multi-dimensional restrictions.

Pakistan’s response expressed in a series of statements by Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar is constructed on the two basic considerations that once guided policy in regard to China and nuclear technology: assertion of sovereignty despite a fragile economy and the iron law of necessity in the domain of national security. In these two cases, Islamabad’s calculated defiance had a solid national consensus that cut across party lines. It is different today largely because many in Pakistan are sceptical of the intentions and resolve of President Zardari’s regime. That they consider the latest initiatives by their government as nothing better than cards, particularly the one with Iran written on it, played randomly to win better terms of engagement from Washington came out vividly in a discussion telecast by Express TV on March 2. A distinguished member of the panel asserted that Islamabad had secretly reassured Washington that there would be no Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline at the end of the day and that the current histrionics were only a ploy to position the ruling coalition better for the forthcoming elections.

It would be idle to argue that President Zardari might have been motivated by factors other than this Machiavellian approach to elections; the distrust is much too deep by now. Regardless of the peculiar ethics, or the lack of any moral compass, that has arguably come to characterise the present government, it would be churlish not to recognise the change in Pakistani establishment’s perception of the national predicament.

Tormented by the fear that India was determined to bring about a collapse of the state in 1947, Pakistan’s foreign policy sought to escape India’s gravitational pull by forging alliances with western powers. This extended manoeuvre turned Pakistan into the much-criticised national security state with an inherently hostile view of India and a frequent disconnect with Afghanistan. The Taliban era all but poisoned relations with Iran. Six decades later, we witness a sea change inasmuch as there is widespread support, civil and military, for a foreign policy that gives higher priority to peaceful relations with neighbours.

It is also not difficult to see that the desired reconstitution of relations can only be based on a dramatic upgrading of bilateral economic ties. The decision to abolish the positive list in India-Pakistan trading would obviously have to be implemented vigilantly but the expected build-up of trade could produce the much-needed bedrock of cooperative peace in the region. Barring some internal dissent, the policy has universal support.

Iran is a different case but no less compelling. The good-neighbourly web of economic cooperation for which no substitute exists has to be inclusive; the Iranian gas pipeline irks the United States but is an important spoke of the wheel. It is vital to the alleviation of Pakistan’s crippling energy deficit and will add to India’s portfolio, should it sign on. At present, it evokes a diametrically opposite reaction in Washington as did Pakistan’s China policy in 1963. Pakistan will face problems including further withering away of American assistance, difficulties with international financial institutions and exacerbation of political tensions in Balochistan. It would almost certainly involve non-dollar transactions and swaps for which the government has made poor preparations. The China policy changed regional and eventually global politics; the nuclear weapons did create a hedge, if shaky, against all out conflicts in South Asia; a robust Pakistan-Iran relationship too would one day be seen as a factor of peace and prosperity. Fare forward, Pakistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 5^th, 2012.