Perfect storm brewing

Looks like it’s arrived. The moment of its biggest trial is now upon this government. The convergence of a series of crises unfolding simultaneously makes this a prime moment to test the strength and capability of the fledgling new democratic government. The question is: do they get it? The floodwaters coursing through the country’s rivers, the deadly escalation in Karachi’s series of target killings, the world’s collapsing confidence in Pakistan as a partner in the war on terror, all are signal crises whose results will be with us for a long time yet.

The floods across the country and those still to come are only the beginning. The aftermath is another ball game altogether. If UN estimates are accurate, and three million people have been displaced as a result, then we have the largest reconstruction and rehabilitation job to pull off after the waters have receded. The damage to infrastructure and crops, livelihoods and homes is yet to be assessed, but it will undoubtedly run into the billions. Then add up the health emergencies and managing the social trauma, and you have the makings of a national crisis at least as large as the 2005 earthquake.

On another front, a meeting and a handshake will not restore Pakistan’s credibility in the eyes of the world community. As the war in Afghanistan gets all wikied up – to coin a phrase – the impending failure of the international mission over there is going to be pinned on us. That’s a fact, and David Cameron’s remarks point towards it. Instead of getting all worked up about them in our newspaper columns and television talk shows, it would be an idea to look past the words themselves, past the theatrics of the moment, the company and the setting amidst which they have been uttered, to the reality behind the remarks.

Once the international community begins to abandon its mission in Afghanistan, and America shifts from counterinsurgency to counterterrorism over there, what sort of a place will be left for us in the new landscape of war that will emerge? General David Petraeus has mentioned in his confirmation hearings that America’s aims in Afghanistan are going to change under his leadership, away from rebuilding the country towards hunting terrorists.

This is big. And its consequences are about to flood over us all too. As our credibility hits rock-bottom in the eyes of the world community, all the sacrifices we have made in the fight against terrorism stand to get washed away as the world moves to largely cut us out as a partner. Cameron’s remarks are best seen as a curtain-raiser on this new reality that will test the government’s ability to keep its relationships with the rest of the world in place under these changing circumstances.

As the floodwaters recede and the foreign forces withdraw, our biggest challenges will materialise in the aftermath. It’ll take money and perspective to get through the day — money for the reconstruction and rehabilitation, and perspective to find our way as we are left to our own devices against a shadowy enemy. Moments such as these can carry the leadership of the day with them. Where we appear to already have lost our credibility with the world, the opportunity to fight for it at home is still available.

But do we see our leaders fighting to establish their credibility in the face of the national emergency sweeping through the country? The prime minister appears lost. From a campaign event, to photo-ops in helicopters, he seems like he is out of ideas. The president is missing in action, off to attend his son’s graduation ceremony under the thin veil of a state visit. And the finance minister hardly seems ready to step in with the resources that are already being demanded by the provinces. The biggest trial of its brief period of rule is now upon this government and the whole country is waiting for them to step up to the plate and show us what they are made of. Thus far, they are failing the test.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 5^th, 2010.