Missing the 2050 bus: Will Pakistan be a global leader, or laggard?

Countries like Vietnam are projected to overtake current leaders like Canada and Italy.

Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world and is ranked 27th on the IMF list in terms of economic power measured by GDP. It is also a member of the elite club of known nuclear powers. It is, therefore, not an insignificant country by any set of measures. In terms of geostrategic importance it has a significant role in the peaceful resolution of the situation in war torn Afghanistan and in the war against terrorism.

As we have now entered 2012 it becomes a matter of keen interest to find out how international analysts and forecasters view the position of Pakistan in the world after a few decades. Many countries, big and small, have turned their fate around in a span of 10 to 20 years. Is Pakistan one of those or is it drifting in the opposite direction? In order to have a dispassionate answer to this question I have chosen two reports independently produced by the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) which forecast how the world will be in 2025 and 2050.

There are four important points which emerge after the two reports are examined. One, there will be a clear shift of economic power from the existing major economic powers known as the G7 to the emerging economies. Second, China and India will be the most dominant players by 2050. Third, it is not impossible to make a break with the past as some relatively new economies seem to be rising up the ladder with carefully planned developmental policies. Fourth, and the most important from our perspective is that Pakistan does not appear in the list and more worryingly when it gets mentioned the cause is not a very positive one.

Both reports agree that the post Second World War international system will be almost unrecognisable by 2025. The PWC report makes projections on the basis of GDP size in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and identifies the developing nations that would become major players in the next few decades. The four rising stars Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) are joined by Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey and are given the collective name of the ‘E7’. South Africa, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Vietnam are other potential frontrunners. The most amazing change is that China and India are expected to rise to the top two positions above the US by 2050. The next notable change in the rankings is Brazil rising above Japan and Indonesia potentially rising significantly in the rankings to eighth place by 2050.

However the inclusion of Vietnam proves that it is not an exclusive club of traditional giants. Compared to Pakistan’s 27th position Vietnam is placed at 40th number as per IMF list of GDP by PPP ranking of 2010. The PWC report predicts that with 8.8% average annual GDP growth Vietnam will be the best performer and by 2050 it will overtake Italy and Canada to bag 14th position on the rankings list.

The NIC report notes that economic globalisation and the dispersion of technologies will place enormous new strains on governments. In the new world order while there will be winners from the emerging economies some will be losers as well. ‘Weak governments’, ‘lagging economies’, ‘religious extremism’, and ‘youth bulges’ are identified as four emerging threats which are feared to create a perfect storm for internal conflict in certain regions. Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Yemen are cited as examples of those countries that are likely to struggle with internal faultlines. One chapter of the NIC report deals with countries that are exposed to state failure as they have common features of high current account deficits and import dependence, low GDP per capita and heavy international indebtedness. Examples given are Central African Republic, Nepal, Laos East Africa and the Horn. Unfortunately Pakistan is also cited as an example of ‘pivotal yet problem-beset countries’ which are at risk of state failure.  In the final assessment the future of Pakistan is considered a ‘wildcard’ by the authors of the NIC report.

Those of us who sincerely wish Pakistan become a major economic power and play a role which is in agreement with its true potential are rightly disheartened to see such an assessment of Pakistan’s future. It appears that by pursuing a nonsensical jingoistic security paradigm Pakistan has missed the long term economic growth bus.

The writer teaches public policy in Hertfordshire University, UK.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 23^rd,  2012.