Outlook beyond the next elections

Perception is a critical factor in economics.

KARACHI:

The overwhelming upheaval symbolised by Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek Insaf, that has started rocking the political ship in Pakistan, suggests that even if it sits in the opposition come next elections, not only the politics but the economy of Pakistan is not going to be the same again. PTI’s Lahore rally in October, the consequent turmoil and defections in the other political parties, and the Karachi public rally on 25the December, ought to make the economic planners and actors of the country sit up and take notice.

Notwithstanding the debatable political implications, it is evident that PTI has set the tone and agenda for socioeconomic policies of the next government whosoever maybe at the helm. In fact, it has set the snowball of public opinion rolling.

The biggest shortsightedness of the present rulers has been the total neglect of efforts in producing national wealth, while wasting billions on mismanaged organisations like PIA, Pakistan Steel Mills, Pakistan Railways etc.

The national agenda that is precipitating, and which is mostly articulated by PTI, appears to be clear about radically tackling some fundamentals in the country, like:

•  Self reliance and liberation from foreign influence

•  Declaration of assets by the wealthiest and public office holders

•  Vigorous tax collection measures and financial discipline

•  Bureaucratic and police shakeup and independence from political influence

•  Organising of the land registration and ownership process

•  Farming sector reforms especially small farming

•  Emphasis on the young population

•  Tapping the wealth of Pakistani diaspora, and last but not the least,

•  devolving justice down the class divides

 

Of course, all politicians are great charmers before the elections and most of them equally disappointing afterwards. However, three aspects of the present situation in the country support an optimistic outlook for the common person.

One, the people are desperate for economic turnaround and are wiser thanks to the electronic media. If PTI does not become the catalyst for change, somebody else will. The status quo is not likely to last much longer. Two, the emphasis on economics and social reforms is being endorsed not only by the people but also by the other political parties, businesses, industry and the potential foreign and domestic investors. Three, there appears to be no significant detractors of these objectives from any quarters. The only exception is the outmaneuvered (outdated?) ruling political parties. Their most common reaction is, “These are good targets, but how are they going to be achieved?” Implying that they are not attainable. A sign of a defeatist mentality, which has already damaged their popularity, and created the room for the so-called third force.

Only time can tell what will happen in the future. However, going by the massive public support and the highly motivated unconventional followers (silent majority) who have emerged lately, the public morale looks conducive for significant political as well as economic change in Pakistan in the near future.

Most of the above guidelines may well place the industrial and commercial sectors on guard, initially.  It may even make things worse before they start getting better.  However, if the next government pursues the policies declared so far, with consistency, the mid to long term prospects for revival of Pakistani economy on ground can be truly revolutionary.

Majority of the business leaders and the public hold the mismanagement and unreliability of the governance during the last four years as the main cause of despair throughout the socioeconomic sector of Pakistan.  No one seems to blame the lack of resources as the cause, except the rulers.

The basic factor that attracts or repels investment, local and foreign, is trust - a perception.  The way masses and the elite of the country seem to be converging under the PTI flag for what they stand for, demonstrates that its biggest asset may well be exactly that - trust.

The contributor is a freelance writer on socioeconomics with a background in trading and exports in the private sector

Published in The Express Tribune, January 2^nd,  2012.