Facts and figures

General Statistics (Reorganisation) Act 2011, this single act contradicts the claims of ensuring autonomy of PBS.

On December 23, the finance minister announced the formation of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) that subsumes the Federal Bureau of Statistics, the Population Census Organisation and the Agricultural Census Organisation — all attached departments of the Statistics Division. Their respective laws — the Industrial Statistics Act 1942, the General Statistics Act 1975, the Population Census Ordinance 1959 and the Agricultural Census Act 1958 — have been merged into the General Statistics (Reorganisation) Act 2011. This, the minister claimed, would “ensure transparency, autonomy and deliver authentic and acceptable figures”. But the governance of statistics has changed form, not substance.

The statistical system performed reasonably well until the Pervez Musharraf-Shaukat Aziz regime began to direct it to paint a larger-than-life performance. Data on growth, poverty, prices and unemployment raised a storm of controversy. As a cover-up, occasional leaks hinted towards the drafting of a law to create an autonomous statistical organisation. There was pressure from the IMF and the World Bank as well. Statistics Canada, the body for official figures in that country, headed incidentally by a reputable statistician of Pakistani origin, was mentioned as a model.

With some changes here and there, the same draft became an act in May this year. It is coming into effect only now, with the finance minister assuming the chair of the governing council. This single act contradicts the claims of ensuring autonomy. Even earlier, the finance minister headed the National Statistical Council, setting the priorities. Private sector users were involved in nearly all committees, but only notionally. The entire debate was about the freeing of the governance of statistics from the user ministries in general, and from the finance ministry in particular. Ideally, there should have been an independent board overseen by a parliamentary committee, not finance ministry. Statistics and census fall in Part II of the federal legislative list. The PBS should, therefore, have been a body reporting to the Council of Common Interests.

As if the presence of the finance minister was not enough, the secretary of the statistics division, which is a part of the finance ministry, has also been made an ex-officio member of the governing council. The experience at the State Bank board has shown that the presence of the finance secretary compromises its autonomy. While the PBS is to be headed by a chief statistician who would enjoy an ex-officio status of secretary to the federal government, the continuation of the statistics division amounts to wasteful duplication. There will be two secretaries and they are bound to be coming into each other’s way. As is often the case, the generalist head of the statistics division will be in a position to sideline the professional head of the PBS, who is to be appointed and granted extensions by the federal government with the summaries routed through the secretary of the statistics division. The chief statistician enjoys far less autonomy than, say, the Federal Board of Revenue chairman or even the executive director of the Higher Education Commission who are their own secretaries. Again, by allowing two renewable tenures to the chief statistician, another mistake of the State Bank law has been repeated. The first tenure will keep the incumbent under pressure, while the second will witness a lame-duck situation. Finally, not much thought seems to have gone into maintaining some standard balances. Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa are not represented. On the other hand, there are three women, which is a welcome change. Economists dominate with five positions and demographers have three. There are no statisticians, except, of course, the chief statistician, an ex-officio member, who hopefully will be a practicing statistician of good repute. Expertise on agriculture is also missing. And nearly all of those chosen have served in international financial institutions.

With various inadequacies, much will depend on the quality of leadership and scientific competence that the chief statistician will bring about to manage what is otherwise a demoralised and poorly-paid group.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 30^th, 2011.