The PM’s statements

People have clearly shown that no matter how much they dislike the current set-up, they are in no mood for a coup.

It is hard to know what to make of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s increasingly erratic public pronouncements. A few days ago, he said that the people would have to decide between their elected representatives and having a dictatorship and he was seemingly blistering in his criticism of the military. On December 26, he appeared to make something of a retreat from his earlier statements, saying that generals are not fired in the midst of war. He also praised Army Chief Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani as a supporter of democracy and denied the existence of any tensions between the government and the military. Strange though it may be that Gilani is now scotching rumours that he himself ignited, it may actually be good news for the government that he now considers being conciliatory to be the best course of action.

Gilani’s earlier public statements, cathartic though they may have been, signalled the last stand of a desperate government that knew its time was up. The magnanimity the prime minister is now showing to the military could be a hint that that the army now realises that the PPP is not going to give up without putting up a fight. And even though both Kayani and ISI Chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha may not be removed from office, that does not mean the government is caving in. In an affidavit submitted to the Supreme Court in the memogate case, the federal government has criticised Pasha for reporting on his meeting with Mansoor Ijaz to Kayani rather than Gilani.

As fretful as the last few weeks have been for well-wishers of democracy, this very public fight between the civilian representatives and the military may end up being the best thing that happened to Pakistan. The people have clearly shown that no matter how much they dislike this current set-up, they are in no mood for an overt coup. For once, the army has been challenged on its wielding unbridled power in the country. Everyone thought the civilians would roll over but they have proved up to the fight. This does not mean that the military, most likely with an assist from the Supreme Court, won’t end up removing Asif Zardari as president. But the government has made it substantially harder for the military to get its way this time.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 28^th, 2011.