Narratives for the next elections

A larger proportion of people are likely to vote on the basis of what they consider to be good for the larger society.

Several new development narratives should emerge as the date for the next general elections draws near. One would hope that out of these different lines of thinking at least two distinct programmes programs — perhaps even more — will surface for addressing current economic woes. These would offer distinct choices to the people as they go to the polls. People should know not just who they will be voting for but also what they will be voting for.

I happen to believe that the nature of politics is changing in Pakistan. In a recent book, Anatol Lieven described Pakistan as a hard country – hard to understand, but also hard to put down as a failure. He argues that while the Pakistani state is weak and is becoming weaker by the day, its society is strong. What lends strength to the society is people’s allegiance to small groups and communities. That makes it possible for the society to work; the leaders of these groups work with another. They thus produce a pyramidal structure that has a great deal of strength. This is what is meant by baradari politics. But that is set to change. Change will come as people gather more information about what is happening around them and what they are losing by having a weak state.

In the forthcoming elections, a larger proportion of people are likely to depart from caste and baradari interests and vote on the basis of what they consider to be good for the larger society. By weakening the politics of baradari, they may be able to strengthen the Pakistani state. This will mean a major change in the structure of politics that has endured for centuries. But for this change to proceed, the people must have confidence that as the larger state displaces the smaller communities and baradris, their own interests will be well served. For that to happen they must know what is being promised by the politicians who are seeking power.

However, a good part of the rhetoric emanating for politicians is focused on foreign relations, in particular relations with the United States. While this is an important matter and will have consequences for the country’s future,  the discourse of economics is where attention needs to be given. To help the development of this discourse, it would be useful to pose some questions to those politicians who are trying to gain the attention of the country’s citizens, by appealing to them on the basis of issues rather than on cementing community and baradari ties.

Scanning what the politicians are saying these days about economics, it is surprising that the question of reviving growth in Pakistan’s faltering economy has not yet entered public discourse. Those who are currently active on the political stage should know that the most serious problem the country’s economy faces today, is that it continues to move forward at a tepid base. For the three-year-period between 2008 and 2011, the rate of GDP growth is likely to average only three per cent a year. With the population still growing at an explosive rate of two per cent per annum, income per head of the population is increasing by a paltry one per cent. With this low rate of economic expansion we can expect that a number of difficult economic, social and political problems will surface.

Those working hard to take away political power from those who currently wield it should be focusing their attention on the question of growth. They need to ask a number of questions. Why growth remains poor, why the economy’s slow expansion is mostly the consequence of public policy, and why the problem of sluggish growth, will create even more problems in the future? Having raised these issues they should then clearly indicate what they will do to revive growth.

Those who are in power now and have been responsible for making public economic policy will have a lot of explaining to do. Why is it that Pakistan today is South Asia’s sick man, growing at a rate less than half of that of Bangladesh and a quarter of that of India. They will undoubtedly attempt to place a great deal of blame on the poor security situation in the country and argue that the uncertainty that is created affects both domestic and foreign investment. They will also put emphasis on the destruction caused by recurrent natural disasters — two devastating floods in two successive years that have taken a heavy toll on the economy, in particular on the sector of agriculture. They will also blame the uncertainty created by the continuing turmoil in the global economy and its adverse impact on the domestic economy.

In other words, the focus of the people in power will be on the factors over which they had little control, while those on the other side of the political divide will blame the policymakers in place today for much that has gone wrong. In this ongoing debate, the truth lies nearer the position taken by those who blame policy for the disaster in economics. The external environment and natural disasters played a role but nowhere as much as was done by poor governance.

With the focus shifting to economics, the first issue that has to be taken in hand is that of the revival of growth. Here it should be emphasised that the traditional model that focuses on capital accumulation with most of the needed capital coming from abroad, will not work. The model Pakistan needs to adopt must include a number of other things — development of new institutions and strengthening of those that continue to function. Whichever leader, supported by whichever group, takes command, will have to take many decisions to orient the economy in a different direction. The leader will have to decide which economic classes should be placed in the lead of which sectors of the economy, in which sectors of the economy should the state work with the private sector and how much emphasis should be given to the development of some of the newer sectors. These are important questions; I will touch upon them in this space in the next few weeks.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 5^th, 2011.