By attracting a huge crowd in Lahore, Imran Khan has evoked considerable interest and generated heated debate in the media. Many people are talking of taking his party seriously, and discussions have been vigorous on television channels. The success of his rally has also caused many mainstream political parties to react strongly. The important issue is not what he said, but the crowd that he attracted, its composition and the implications for the country’s overall scheme of politics.
Whether the number was less than or more than 100,000 is now immaterial. Even his biggest detractors are now agreed that it was definitely the biggest they have seen in Lahore for years. And it would be fair to say that a large percentage of the people came on their own, unlike what may happen, say, at rallies organised by some other political parties. To say that a lot of money may have been spent on the rally is also not a fair comment because all parties spend money to organise a rally on such a scale. Also, the argument that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) may now be able to make a dent in the PML-N’s vote bank is belittling the PTI’s potential given the turnout at its Lahore rally.
Imran Khan quite clearly holds an attraction for young people. Furthermore, it seems that the — generally apolitical — middle class, which is fed up of mainstream political parties, seems to have found a liking for him. Of course, here I would say that these young people generally have not taken to politics, they usually keep away from it because they consider it a place where one gets dirty and where things get ugly. But the question to ask is that after showing their support for him, will they continue to stay engaged with politics?
There is also the concern, voiced by many, that the establishment is supporting him. And to give proof of this they are now saying that the PTI chief said nothing about reducing the defence budget, and that his views on India, or the Taliban for that matter, are more or less the same as that of the establishment.
But even that is not the issue.
The real issue is that a vast majority of Pakistanis, mostly young people, believe that he is going to bring change to the country. These are people who are genuinely disenchanted with the politics of our mainstream political parties. Again, whether they are justified in their disenchantment or not is not the issue — that they are disillusioned is. And the mainstream political parties clearly need to understand why this is the case, and work to addressing these concerns.
As for the establishment, it is in all likelihood going to be quite happy with what happened on October 30. It knows Khan or his party is not a challenge to the status quo as far as the military is concerned. After all, at the rally, the PTI chief did not say anything about corruption in the military or about reducing the perks and privileges of senior military officers.
So even if he is elected and his party gains a significant number of seats and makes it to parliament, the real decision-making, as far as important policy decisions are concerned, will continue to remain with the establishment. So, in a sense, the PTI rally should be seen by the mainstream political parties as a wakeup call. They need to get their act together and realise that they need to do what they can to strengthen democracy because the alternative could be far worse. The success of one rally should not mean that the PTI’s popularity will now be a game-changer as far as national politics is concerned. Unless it gets similar crowds in other provinces, it will remain a player at the level of a spoiler.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 2nd, 2011.
COMMENTS (22)
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Common Pakistanis particularly Punjabis are emotionally charged people and Pakistani politicians are corrupt and cunning.Emran Khan is the new commer in line of those politicians whose slogan is crush India,Crush America and Kashmir is our jagular vein.Definetely he will sweep .
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@ali: Pakistan is a bigger threat to India than India is to Pakistan. As far as corruption within the armed forces is concerned, it is probably many fold greater than corruption within civilian governments. This may be institutionalized corruption as well as non-institutionalized corruption.
pti rally in lahour is the political activites of the political activists of pti workers it is a sampl a rally but behind this rally was the main political parties ppp.pml.(q) mqm,and other political parties and slso pak estiblishment who is the real share holder in the pak politice
@Zoiab Honestly, I think that all those who are expecting IK to come out against the army at this point are being really naive. Reducing the defence budget and establishing civilian supremacy may be a valid issue and one close to our hearts, but let's face it - it is NOT an election issue and it won't get you any votes! It may get you the approval of some analysts and the intelligentsia, but there is very little to be gained by making it a political issue. That's just how it is. I agree with your fairly balanced view on this issue.
I am anti-establishment But I support Imran Khan...because he has said number of times that he is uncontrollable and as far as I know him, he is...He is the one who was offered PMship during Musharraf era but he refused it....don't u think its anti-establishment?? He has mentioned number of times in his interviews that his role model is Turkish PM Erdugan...and if you know Erdugan...he is an anti-establishment....so, i have seen in these days,, it has become a fashion in Tribune to write against Imran Khan and his party followers. I think just because he has some tilt towards the 'right wing'....this is so funny that even some authors are saying that they dislike IK's views just because IK said in his speech that he wants to make Pakistan as an 'Islami welfare state'....They are crying over why he said 'Islamic' and not just welfare state...this is sooo crazyy....I think in Pakistan, there is just one percent of people who really has no idea what are real issues in Pakistan...they don't see corruption, illiteracy, etc as the main issues....so, i guess but even if we say anything to support Imran Khan....then may be next day, someone will write against 'PTI tigers' and call them as Internet warriors... I sincerely hope that this 'stupidity' should stop now..!!!
The writer of this article is my Teacher. This is an impressive article about the PTI's Jalsa and Post--Jalsa Political Scenario. Really informative and analytical one.
PTI is making all the right moves. Mark my words, those who believe that PTI will only dent PML N vote bank will be as shocked and surprised as they are after witnessing the historical Lahore Jalsa.
These people turn a blind eye to the fact that the traditional voter turn out in elections in Pakistan is between 35-40%. PTI's biggest success is that it has activated those who have never ever voted in their entire life.I personally know of dozens of families belonging to small towns of Punjab and Karachi too, where parents have registered their votes after being convinced by their school going children to vote for Imran Khan.
If Imran Khan keeps the momentum, there is every possibility that voter turn out in next elections could soar to 70% as people who are disillusioned with current lot of politicians would have found a viable alternative to vote to. We have already seen a trailer of this phenomenon in Lahore. Who could have ever thought that a political rally in Pakistan would attract thousands of politically charged college going young girls?
Things are changing fast in Pakistan. Let's hope for the best.
We are perceptive people and impulses control our rational thinking. Such cult for charismatic personality is neither new nor a purely a Pakistani tradition. I have seen it going back to liberation movements in Africa and Asia. We also need to keep in mind that politics is the name of compromises at every step. Imran Khan or whoever comes to power have to work with a large body of civil-military bureaucrats and obviously politicians of all colors, sizes and flavors. Get over this euphoria of “one man solution.” It has never worked and will never work. Leading a cricket team is one thing and leading a country of 170 million people (all playing their own tunes) is another. Let us build the institutions than yelling emotional slogans.
@Meekal Ahmed: I think you meant to say "stronger stand". Still, I share your disappointment. I think military's corruption and pervasive hold on the country's bodypolitik is still largely hidden from the general public's eye and IK knows that. So he is trying to play smart. In the end however, he will only result in spoiling N's vote bank, thereby paving way for another Zee stint. Happy news for the establishment as a divided vote only stregthen's their fist. We are indeed living in interesting times!
@Meekal Ahmed: Why cut Defence budjet and tackle non existent corruption in Military ?
I want a Strong Military and Contain Indian Threat. PTI caters to my views. That is called Democracy. Majority of Pakistanis see India as a threat, that doenst make us all ISI agents, it makes you a fake liberal
@nadir...so if he start talking about military you will forget there is anything wrong with PTI....so if he talks about them means he is not establishment party and if he do not mention them like zardari or nawaz it is party of establishment...are u telling me because PML N is talking about army so they are anti establishment and they are not a right wing establishment party?..by ur logic they are as democratic as it gets because they are always talking about establishment and they are the one created by establishment...why does he have to mention army anyway....army is not ruling..don't tell me they are doing everythin..if they are then zardari and nawaz should resign and tell us that establishment is ruling ....its as simple as that..the way i see it ..PPP and PML N are ruling not army...until this goverment resign and tell us i won't believe that army is ruling..
@Nadir: Whenever Imran Khan is asked about the civil-military imbalance (and it has happened many times), he's always said that the army has no role in politics, and that he would take a STAND if the army tries to step on his government's authority, just like Erdogan did in Turkey. But if you want Imran to go all out and antagonize the army for no reason, then it's not going to happen. There is a time for everything...
@Zoaib: Good strategy or not, you cant offer explanations for their silence if they are silent on it themselves!!
Good article. Just like Zoaib has said, I think most of the people have not followed PTI progress on the ground closely, otherwise people won't have been surprised. Answers to your questions regarding India, Establishment, and Taliban: 1. PTI has clear stance on relations with India and IK had brought that up in his conversation with Indian Media at LSC. He is keenly interested in developing strong relations with India and this is exhibited (in case you didn't notice) by the fact that PTI didn't go against granting MFN status just like PML-N did recently. 2. Establishment issue - IK's frequent mention of Erdogan and Gen. Asghar Khan...both of which are strong establishment critics points to the fact that he is not very keen on working with establishment but he won't rock the boat either. Lastly, people miss the point that he has NOTHING to gain from working with the establishment. What people need to understand that curtailing defense budget for a country that is in a delicate security situation is not that easy in the short-term and can be done in phased manner only. 3. As for Taliban, IK has very different stance from the regular parties most likely because of his personal familiarity with the area, sentiments on the grounds, and the available history of that area.PTI will launch military offensive only as a last resort.
Lastly, believe me he is in the game to win it and he will keep surprising you!
A spoiler, yes. May be IK can make it into the Cabiinet but not much else.
I am bitterly disappointed in his not taking a stranger stand against the military and their corruption. It does not take a genius to figure out what that implies.
@Zoaib: That's not a good strategy at all. If he can't get elected by speaking out against it right now, it's best he's not elected for a reason that has yet to make it into skeptic's concerns. If he gets into office and then alienates them, he'll end up getting most, if not all of his attempts towards "change" on the political level hindered simply out of spite. Angering then beforehand is far different than doing it afterwards. Not only will he get extreme resistance from most towards his goals from all sides he has to work with but, they will also gain in severity if they think they've been mislead and taken for fools. There will be such a handicap that the other groups will actually be able to do the job more efficiently if in power. It doesn't matter what he said in the past. It's an evolving situation. Unless you're saying your bringer of "change" is actually incapable of "change." "Strategy" is not the appropriate label you're looking for. It's "short sighted." and "short sighted" people make terrible strategists. In fact, they're completely opposite concepts.
Pti jalsa was good jalsa. i like Imran Khan very much he said all the right things. it reminded me of a speech by martin luther King "I have a dream". For the youth its become a fashion to support Imran Khan.we all now that balochistan is full of minerals, we all now that we can produce 60,000 mwats electricity. but the question is do we have the mechanism to do so? do we have the money to even build a 5000 mw dam? how on earth are we going to get out of the circular debt. how are we going to pay back the billions of dollars to the IMF. how can we get the railway and Pia back on track.
Pakistans problems cannot be fixed by one man. it can only be dealt with collective efforts.
Ok so he will take some of pml Ns vote bank. how is that going to make things better. coz in the next election if punjab gets divided into PTI and PML N. PPP will come to the federation again as it has strong support in Sindh and with the crooked alliance with MQM and ANP they will make it back into the federation.
Success of PTI's Lahore rally will be followed by similar success in the other cities like Gujranwala, Faisal Abad, Mianwali & probably Multan where disenchantment rampantly exists against both PML-N & PPP as well. Position in cities like Multan & Jhang etc. will depend upon the responses in rallies in Gujranawal, Faisal Abad and joining of some break-aways from these mainstream parties (like Khurshid Kasuri, Makhdhoum Shah Mahmoud Qureshi etc). Lack of any chrismatic leaderip, their inability to deliver have done damage to these parties.
People are as desperate for a change now as they were in the mid 80's against the repressive, long drawn, dictatorial rule. In all these cities, after Lahore rally's trumpeting successm, disgruntled masses in large number await Mr. Khan as eagerly as people awaited Benazir in `1986 in Lahore.
In KPK, PTI has also immense fan-followings on account of its anti-American stance and consistent opposition of drone attacks in addition to ANP' disappointing performance. In Sindh also, PTI is trying to make inroads.
Wind of change has started & PTI' role in future will not merely be that of a spoiler, rather a winner or at least decider with a potent voice in national policy making.
"As for the establishment, it is in all likelihood going to be quite happy with what happened on October 30. It knows Khan or his party is not a challenge to the status quo as far as the military is concerned."
You should think again. Imran has always talked about how Turkey's Erdogan has established civilian supremacy and only a politician of character i.e. one credible and clean enough can really exert the moral pressure required to put the military in its place. You can only dream of it with these corrupt politicians we have now.
PTI is playing its cards cleverly. If they are not talking about civilian supremacy and reduction in defence budget NOW, does not mean they are against it. They just don't want to make more enemies than they already have. It is called good strategy.
The PTI is a political party and playing the game well. No denying its support base has widened and its influence, and congratulations to it for a successful rally. However, its silence on the military, its policies, its commercial activities and corruption, and only railing against corruption that can be attached with its political opponents reeks of opportunism. What off the PPP members who have joined PTI, did they declare their assets before they joining PTI, do they have no corruption allegations against them? There is nothing wrong in all of this. All political parties do the same thing. Which is why all this rhetoric of “new politics” is a sham, PTI supporters are as intolerant and aggressive as the supporters of other parties. In addition, since PTI is big on transparency, still waiting for PTI leaders to declare their assets, or do they only demand that their opponents do so?