ISLAMABAD: The new Afghan-Indian security pact could inflame Pakistan's proxy war against India and threatens Islamabad's regional ambitions in South Asia as its ties with Kabul and Washington hit rock bottom.
Pakistan has been on the defensive as Afghanistan has cosied up to India. Kabul claims the recent murder of its peace envoy Burhanuddin Rabbani was plotted in Pakistan, and has accused Islamabad of hindering the investigation.
(Read: Karzai travels to India amid regional tension)
Pakistan has been terse about the burgeoning India-Afghanistan alliance. "Both are sovereign countries and they have the right to do whatever they want to," Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said in brief response.
But the alliance undermines Pakistan's policy of courting Afghanistan to offset the regional superpower status of India, with which it has fought three wars since independence in 1947, including two over Kashmir.
Fearful of encirclement by its wealthier neighbour, Pakistan has long focussed on Afghanistan -- arming warlords against the Soviets in the 1980s, backing the Taliban in the 1990s and hedging its bets in the 2000s.
But the new strategic partnership sealed Tuesday, which will see India take a bigger role in training Afghan security forces after already dishing out more than $2 billion in aid, threatens to isolate Pakistan further.
Pakistani military affairs analyst Ayesha Siddiqa went further.
"This pact will definitely lead to a more intense proxy war between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan, because India will be training the Afghan military and Pakistan does not consider this in its interest," she told AFP.
When US-led forces invaded Afghanistan in October 2001 after the 9/11 attacks, Pakistan formally sided with the United States, but has been long accused of playing a double game with its old warlord and Taliban friends.
Those accusations reached fever pitch after the US embassy in Kabul was subject to a 19-hour siege on September 13 and Rabbani was assassinated on September 20.
Those incidents came after the US killing of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden on the doorstep of Pakistan's top military academy in May.
The United States launched a concerted campaign last month, accusing Pakistani intelligence of involvement in the embassy attack and demanding the state cut all ties with the Haqqani network, an Afghan Taliban faction.
And although Prime Minister Gilani declared a "victory" in facing down US pressure on the Haqqanis, officials behind the scenes paint a less rosy picture of relations.
"Every time I think we've hit rock bottom, I find both countries have shovel in their hand and are digging further down trying to find a new bottom," one Pakistani security official told AFP on condition of anonymity.
US options for action are limited. Pakistan, which says nearly half the US war effort in Afghanistan is routed through its territory, stonewalled the Haqqani accusations and last week the pressure began to ease off.
Some say Karzai's visit to India was an opportunity to take up where the United States had left off with its accusations -- and strike a chord in India, which blamed the horrific 2008 Mumbai attacks on Pakistani militants.
Yet despite the distrust, Kabul recognises that there can be no resolution to the 10-year Afghan conflict without at least acquiescence from Islamabad.
Karzai on Wednesday sought to ease Pakistan's discomfort, describing it as Afghanistan's "twin brother" -- although "brother" is also a word he uses for the Taliban -- and India as a "great friend".
Nevertheless, analysts say, the Kabul-Delhi partnership may force Pakistan into reappraising its approach to militancy.
"There has to be less obvious support for insurgents in order to prevent much obvious isolation," said A.H. Nayyar, a physics professor and political analyst at Lahore University of Management Sciences.
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@mirror on the wall: Now, won't you like to show mirror to someone else? Who interfered in Afghanistan?. The influx of refugee was natural and hey most of them were hosted by KPK or Balochistan and the rest were selling goods to them as i see most of karachi and lahore businessmen wish to open branches of their businesses at Kabul, Mazar and Jalalabad. So plz keep this wisdom talk to yourself and show the mirror to guys like hameed gul and all those who hosted chalie wilsons of the past.
India should support Afghanistan's and Iran's ambitions of liberating their Pashtun and Baloch brethren from Pak-Punjabi clutches. Otherwise the slaughter in both Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan will go on. We need a trilateral treaty between India, Afghanistan and Iran.
Saudi Rules : India take a bigger role in training Afghan security forces after already dishing out more than $2 billion in aid, threatens to isolate Pakistan further. We should match india’s strategy punch for punch. For starters, if india offered $2 billion to afghanistan, pakistan should give $4 billion to help our afghan brothers. We can re-negotiate IMF to loan us extra $4 billion for that purpose. Also, remittance from the pakistani residing abroad is over $10 billion a year!! I am sure we can use $4 billion to help our muslim brother in need.
Wht a joke hahahahahahahahah Pakistan's defence budget is 4 billion dollor and pakistan should give 4 billlion dollors so that it left without any money to even pay their militay officers. Well thought bro now i m understanding why pakistan is a sinking a ship
india has invested $2 billion for Afghanistan's development. Why don't we do the same?
One wonders how Karzai,who at best could be viewed as the Mayor of Kabul only,can claim Pakistan to be Afghanistan's twin brother. Pakistan is hardly a sixty-plus young country, while Afghanistan is an old hell on earth burning since long. Pakistan's only fault in this imbroglio is that it sheltered over three millions Afghans including Karzai and his family and scores of others like him. In the process it earned brinkmanship of the worst kind.Our losses are huge both in men and materials. During current decade only, we lost over 40,000 soldiers and civilians and $ 70 billions in GDP.In addition to this we have been attacked in most vile fashion by every Tom,Dick and Harry.We have experienced astronomical ascent of culture of drugs, guns and lawlessness in our country.
Afghanistan should be left to meet its own doom and gloom and we should avoid it like a plague.It was Sheikh Saadi, after all, who declared several centuries ago that' Even when due to severe paucity of human companionship no one is around for friendship...Never befriend,First an Afghan-------' It is time to sober up and learn this piece of wisdom.
Pakistan has been outsmarted by it's two neighbor only because they were not genuinely interested in regional peace. Had their motives been sincere. Pakistan would have enjoyed peace and prosperity and would have enjoyed stability and reputation like Turkey, self-interest of few powerful establishment has bought us to this point. I guess these people will now have to really work for their money, but there are Mir Jaffers among us ready to oblige.
@saudiurles: First get one meal per day for 80% of pakistanis living below poverty line. First thing we must learn is to accept living according to our "aukat" and our international position. Who do you think we are? With a failed economy dont try to foolishly overestimate and try get into the league of big players like China and India, like a crow among peacocks. Dont forget, India's defence budget itself is more than our entire country's budget ( which includes begged loans and false remittance figures). India is world's third largest economy ($ 4.5 trillion PPP) and $2bilion is peanuts for them, but 2 billion is lifeline for millions of dirt poor pakistanis.
now it is too late. NATO should have taken Indian offer to train afghan military long ago. afghan army trained in secular and non political traditions of Indian army would have been best guaranty of security so that by now westerners could have started withdrawing their troops leaving security in afghan hands. western powers with their cold war and colonial mindset always were in love with pakistan and sidelined India. that did not stop pakistanis from hating them and deep state acting against them. and people are calling afghan army a ragtag army which no one knows how much to trust and is probably even infiltrated by taliban. Pakistan is too paranoid about Afghanistan-India relationship. india is not some far away foreign country but like Pakistan is Afghanistan's neighbour. perhaps Pakistan's definition of friendly Afghanistan is that it should be completely subjugated and under sharia of taliban style.
@Hasan: Mr. Hasan, I was invariably referring to the Deep State's policy of treating Afghanistan as their backyard and a pawn in their "Strategic Depth" game. Indeed, the war in Afghanistan has created a lot of refugees. While this can be attributed to historical reasons, the Pakistani ISI and Army's policies towards Afghanistan have not helped much either. Let me ask you - who created Taliban for the sole purpose of controlling Afghanistan politically? Who was involved in fighting Russians in Afghanistan?
Pakistanis cannot run away from their moral responsibility of accepting Afghan people who were rendered homeless due to their dirty policies.
Why feel squeezed ? Have genuine friendship with both and feel the warmth from both sides..
@Naveed: "United Kingdom, USSR, US, NATO…… and before them there were many who considered themselves powerful and had intervened in the region we know today as “Afghanistan and part of Pakistan, together make a cultural region called Pukhtunistan”…
Now we have another one, the so called “rising India”; with a number of internal and external issues…. "
Difference between the others and India is that the others invaded Afghanistan and were seen as occupiers. India is not invading Afghanistan. Instead it is building roads, schools, hospitals.
@SaudiRules: Won't you rather repay your debt before giving to others?
@Hasan:
We did our part in 1971 sheltering thousands of then Pakistani citizens of now Bngla Desh
Pakistan should make a pact with Bangladesh and squeeze India; In fact since both are Islamic and in Indian subcontinent they should become one country and squeeze India
@hasan i thought that pak was made for muslims then why should India take afghan refugess. India will help afghans and give them aid rather than war as pak did.
This is all a foreign policy game. We have glamorous foreign policy and the need of the hour is that we must have a prudent foreign policy which is difficult to acquire under the present government.Nations forge ahead because of their foreign policies and not cosmetic faces and slogans. Isolation seems to be our fate as is appearing on the scene to all
@Nate Gupta: I don't think we as Pakistani's think Afghanistan as our own backyard. But please consider this: for thirty years we have hosted all these Afghan refugees who fled the Russian occupation. These Afghans didn't bring with them Gulab Jamans or Laddoos, they brought KK's and drugs. They have caused massive problems in our cities. If India is so friendly and helpful towards Afghanistan, please take all the refugees who are living inside our borders from us. Then India will know how good or bad this friendship is. I say good riddance! Time to help our brothers in Balochistan, KPK and Sindh and kick these people out.
Pakistan should not feel like they are being squeezed by this pact. After all, they are free to make similar pact too with Afghanistan. While at one hand, Pakistani want to be treated equally vis-a-vis their much bigger and wealthier neighbour India, they continue to treat Afghanistan as their own backyard and have no concern for the life of Afghans.
I find this very hypocritical of Pakistanis. Treat others as you would like to be treated!
@Naveed: I don't think they are fool enough to commit ground forces to Afghanistan. But their current policy of support for afghans in education and infrastucture is a great policy from which we should learn. I am a Pakistani Pashtun and i want to see a prosperous and peaceful afghanistan, but what my government or more rightly establishment think...i don't know.
An extremely mature and well-balanced response from Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani ji. Yesterday, I had expounded the basic structure of relationships between Pakistan, Afghanistan and India. Afpak is the Raam-Laxman duo of our times. India is the dutiful and devoted common friend, Lord Hanuman. America is the Ravan in this region. Just like Ravan had stolen Raam's Sita, the dignity and pride of Raghuvansh, keeping her captive in the Ashok forest of Lanka, America has stolen Pakistan's most cherished sovereignty enchaining it in the financial labyrinth of the IMF and World Bank. Raam, Laxman and Lord Hanuman should all come together and battle for the rescue of Sita. Until such time, there is no hope for world peace, no end to chaos and anarchy.
P.S. There is another Diggvijay Singh commenting on this forum. Please do not confuse his personality with mine. I am a fair-minded secular humanist Indian and my writing style and grammar are subtly different from that of my namesake who also seems to be a fairly liberal and open-minded human being although not truly erudite.
United Kingdom, USSR, US, NATO...... and before them there were many who considered themselves powerful and had intervened in the region we know today as "Afghanistan and part of Pakistan, together make a cultural region called Pukhtunistan"...
Now we have another one, the so called "rising India"; with a number of internal and external issues....
lets see if they can change the history, or the history repeats itself once more?
@ohlala: the steps taken are to assure that India's position in afghanistan remains strong after 2014 withdrawal. India isnt taking assurance from karzai into account but it is the legal permission India got thru these agreement that they can indulge into afghanistan polity and defence.
china has invested much more than India and its faith on chinese to come with a solution as they wont let their investment go waste.
Indian investment and social work earned a favorable image in afghanistan. the treatment and education initiatives are now giving a pay back. many of Indians and pakistanis dont know but India is running many sanskrit classes in afghanistan, teachers being muslim with full authorization from elders' council and taliban. this is weird but true.
investing the energy and resources meant for internal stability on afghanistan will further weaken pakistan from inside.
I think the entire region will be peaceful when all the territorial disputes are resolved.The kashmir issue should be resolved by india according to wishes of the kashmiris,the pakistani people and the chinese who also hold a stake in aksai chin and laddakh.Also india should resolve the issue of junagadh and hyderabad according to the wishes of the pakistani people since the rulers of both these states had decided to join them.As a token of good faith india should also hand over indian punjab to pakistan and pashcim bongo to bangladesh.We should also hand over sikkim and arunachal pradesh to the chinese as they share so many physical traits.Once all these disputes are resolved i think all of us can hope for a better future for our generations and sing afghan-pak-hindi-chini bhai bhai.
Indians should stop fooling themselves. Karzai does not extend beyond the greenzone, and he has been of no use to the US in helping secure Afghanistan. If anything he has squandered the millions that came in for reconstruction (re: Bank of Afghanistan bankruptcy scandal). He is ultimately going to squander Indian development money and only invite more trouble for India.
It is going to be increasingly difficult for Pakistan to harness its "strategic assets". Looks like the whole world is arraying against Pakistan.
There are no permanent friends in politics. But afghanistan was never a friend of Pakistan. They where rulers of Afghanistan through the proxy Taliban, trained, supported and commanded from Islamabad. The ISI had to run sorties to evacuate it commanders from kabul when the American came blazing after 9/11. Its no secret. So yes now the underdogs have risen up against their masters. They do not want to be ruled by Pakistan any more. This is definetly not a question of friendship. One way to see it as a declaration of Freedom.
Now why are they siding with India. Just because china doesn't want to take the mess at least for now. Equation may change later. They have not seen how their investment will be made profitable in Afghanistan. So a veritable option is India. Ready to shell out billions on infrastructure and security of Afghanistan.
They have realised that guns and bullets do not beget prosperity. It bring death and destruction. Afghans have chosen life, What does Pakistan choose ?
Karzai's being overly polite...Pakistan is no brother to Afghanistan, never has been, nor will it ever be. As for the Paskhtuns and Baluch, they are viewed as our own people, awaiting their independance in the right moment. Meanwhile, Pakistan will continue to reap what it's sown.
Karzai though call Pakistan and Taleban as twin and cousin brothers respectively but donot consider either of them as reliable. However, on the other hand he calls India as a friend only but considers it as the most trustworthy ally. Most of my Pakistani friends may not agree, but its a fair and logical assessment.
I definetely fear for the worst for India . India has been pushed to give security assistance pact to afghanistan as it does not want militants like LeT and similar groups use afghanistan post 2014 when US leaves. This will leave pakistan to sponsor another high profile attack not in pakistan but directly in india ( Cong ,Bjp,Security heads any of these or public like 26/11) and making India directly fight with pakistan .Pakistanis will play the nationalist tunes and say death to India and blame all their economic problems,water problems,even dengue fever caused because of Indian RAW all along .I would have suggested Indian security policy advisers to beef up security inside india before even thinking about afghanistan which US has done... I wonder why India does not involve Chinaity and make a bigger south asian security pact in which china takes care of pakistan as well... We Indians dont have that power but time only will tell if India is capable of pulling this off safeguarding indian borders from pakistan sponsored blow back!!.
Watch out Pakistan . Next will be trilateral treaty between Afganistan, Iran and India. Pakistan can deal with Arabic sea with OBL at the bottom.