Electricity matters

Nawaz Sharif could use electricity as a framing device for populism he needs to get back into power.

If a media that confuses wishful thinking with sound analysis is to be believed, the riots that have broken out over Pakistan’s never-ending power crisis could spell a premature end to Asif Zardari’s presidency and bring about mid-term elections (or three-quarter term elections in this case).

Zardari has been quite remarkable in his resiliency but then the standards set for survival by the media have been quite low. Every time the judiciary asserts its independence or a coalition partners acts unruly, we are told that that the PPP’s end is nigh. They have survived all other hiccups and will ride out the electricity protests too — at least until 2013.

Given his limited appeal outside his home province, Nawaz Sharif will have to sweep Punjab to be the head of a coalition government. The best strategy, then, would be for him to tell the people of the province that only he can get them off the streets and into homes with electricity by building large damns. In his second term as prime minister, Sharif had come out strongly in favour of building the Kalabagh dam but has since back-pedalled, saying the issue threatened the federation. As the only national politician to once have vowed to build the Kalabagh dam, a move that would be immensely popular in Punjab, where he needs as many votes as he can get, and hated elsewhere, where he wouldn’t get many seats anyway, Sharif can use this polarising issue to his benefit.

And he wouldn’t have to rely on naked provincialism to make his case for dams. Currently, Pakistan only produces about one-third of its electricity through hydel power with around 6,500 MW out of a total of our 19,500 MW coming from this source. Given the expense in importing furnace oil and our rapidly depleting natural gas reserves, he could argue that simple mathematics demands the construction of dams.

Nawaz Sharif could also use electricity as a framing device for the populism he has discovered since being removed from power. Having proven himself adept at bandwagon-jumping, by hijacking the lawyers’ movement to restore Iftikhar Chaudhry and then articulating the nation’s frustrations with the military leadership after the May 2 raid by the US in Abbottabad, the PML-N chief presents himself as a man of the people.

This often requires a certain amount of verbal dexterity since he has to be against the leaders of the military without alienating the foot soldiers who have often been his base of support and he has to be anti-US without being seen as pro-militant. He can thus justify his anti-Americanism, a stance that is tune with the mood of the people even at the best of times, by pointing out their opposition to the Iranian gas pipeline. A pipeline that runs from the Iranian city of Zahedan into Pakistan would alone provide about 1,000 MW of electricity; further cooperation could eliminate our electricity deficit altogether.

The PML-N has accused the ruling PPP of purposely providing less electricity to Punjab, thereby precipitating longer hours of loadshedding. The charge is a preposterous one as any electricity shortfall is obviously going to hit the most populous province hardest. But were he canny enough, Sharif would realise that what is bad for the province may be the best thing to have happened to his electoral prospects. With the Tehreek-i-Insaf outflanking him to the right, Nawaz Sharif needed a crisis that transcends ideology. And he may just have got it.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 6^th, 2011.