Energy, food keep SPI in double digits

Inflation rises as LPG price jumps 107%, electricity 52%, petrol 44% and wheat flour 35%

KARACHI:

Pakistan's Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) remained elevated at 11.32% year-on-year for the week ended October 29, 2026, underscoring sticky short-term inflation even as the index slipped 0.35% week-on-week.

The year-on-year reading reflects sustained cost pressures on energy and selected food items, with global supply concerns linked to the US-Israel conflict with Iran and ongoing Houthi confrontation with Saudi Arabia continuing to influence fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices.

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data showed the combined SPI stood at 373.51, down from 374.84 in the previous week but well above 335.53 recorded a year earlier. On a weekly basis, electricity charges for Q1 fell 3.92%, chicken prices declined 2.95%, eggs dropped 2.81%, wheat flour eased 0.83% and LPG retreated 0.73%. Petrol, sugar and powdered milk also posted modest declines.

In contrast, tomatoes surged 34.91%, potatoes rose 3.27%, diesel increased 2.53% and gram pulse advanced 2.11%. Bread, onions, fresh milk and curd registered smaller gains. Of the 51 essential items tracked across 50 markets in 17 cities, prices of 15 items (29.41%) rose, 12 items (23.53%) fell and 24 items (47.06%) remained unchanged.

Year-on-year, LPG prices climbed 106.86%, electricity charges for the lowest quintile jumped 52.38%, diesel rose 45.13% and petrol increased 43.61%. Wheat flour was up 34.87% and chicken 31.72%. Declines were recorded in potatoes (down 38.67%), tomatoes (27.99%), eggs (26.70%) and sugar (25.21%).

The highest-income quintile (Q5) faced the steepest annual increase of 12.13%, while the lowest-income group (Q1) recorded a rise of 8.07%. Week-on-week, Q5 saw the largest decline of 0.41%. The persistence of double-digit SPI growth, particularly in energy, points to limited near-term relief for households despite the modest weekly dip.

The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation slowed down to 10.3% in September but it remained higher than the official forecast due to increasing prices of electricity and fuel, which offset the positive impact of a significant slowdown in prices of food commodities.

According to the PBS, energy group prices further increased compared to a year ago. This kept the overall inflation at 10.3%, which was slightly higher than the projection of the Planning Commission.