Questions around CPEC 2.0

A public-welfare SMS message that appeared across the Chinese mobile network on September 10 read: "The rule of law to escort the new journey of the 15th Five-Year Plan and work together to build a solid electromagnetic space safety network. Let us join hands, cherish spectrum resources, and set frequencies in accordance with laws and regulations."

The unambiguous emphasis on the rule of law in a public message was striking. It reflects an important feature of China's political economy: an emphasis on governance anchored in law, public interest and a sustained pursuit of institutional and economic capacity.

This theme also resonated during a Sino-Pakistan roundtable involving Pakistani diplomats and Chinese scholars at the Fudan University in Shanghai. Beyond the customary pleasantries and positive references to bilateral ties, several Chinese participants raised some pointed questions about Pakistan's development priorities and the future of the relationship.

Most of the Chinese conversation revolved around the rule of law, investment in education and skills and Pakistan's own priorities and commitment. One participant noted that effective absorption of technology required a sound business environment, protection of contracts and intellectual property, and adequate human capital.

Does Pakistan have a long-term development plan? Does it want to prioritise development at all or eager for a strategic role abroad? Can Pakistan convert its strategic relationship with China into sustained economic growth?

"CPEC 2.0 is very important, but in my understanding the first step is to establish national consensus and internal stability," one professor observed. "No matter how much support comes from outside, absence of consensus among political parties and provinces will fail it," he cautioned.

A female professor stressed that CPEC 2.0 should reflect the needs and aspirations of people on the ground. According to her, if Pakistan and China want to build on their cooperation, they should listen to the legitimate demands and aspirations of the Baloch people.

Without referring directly to Pakistan's current political circumstances, another scholar emphasised that "state capacity does not necessarily mean a stronger state, its ability to coordinate policies, translate decisions into results and create a predictable business environment makes it strong."

Another professor was more direct: "We would like to ask our Pakistani friends about their goals. Is the priority economic development at home or excellence in foreign relations? Do you want to play a leading role in the Islamic world, or educate your own people and build the foundations for development?"

She also raised the implications of Pakistan's emerging strategic commitments. "You may become militarily involved abroad in the event of a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but would that contribute to the goal of peace? How can you pursue peace by joining an alliance perceived as anti-Iran," she asked.

Recalling Defence Minister Khawaja Asif's earlier television statement that Pakistan's nuclear capabilities "will absolutely be available" to Saudi Arabia under the bilateral Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement - although he subsequently walked back the statement - the Chinese scholar asked whether Pakistan wanted "more wars and influence abroad or development and prosperity for its own people."

Pointing to China's own experience, another participant said, four decades of planning and sustained investment in education, skills and economic planning got the country to its current standing. Pakistan, too, needed to strengthen its human capital and technological base before expecting significantly greater investment and technology transfers from China, he said.

Pakistan's ability to absorb advanced technologies, including AI-based technologies, remains low; hi-tech transfers can generate broader economic and social benefits only when the recipient country has the skills, institutions and infrastructure needed to integrate and deploy them effectively.

One scholar also suggested that Pakistan and China should first consolidate their bilateral relationship and then look more systematically at multilateral cooperation and regional development. The broader objective should be to promote economic integration and improve living standards across the region.

The Chinese participants recognised that Pakistan wants greater investment, technology and economic opportunities from CPEC. But they stressed the need for well-thought-out and consistent planning as requisites.

"China got here on the back of focused economic planning. India is also planning," one participant observed. "But do Pakistani leaders have a long-term plan for development and modernisation?"

According to him, infrastructure investment remains important, but projects should have practical economic utility and contribute directly to people's development.

Military-to-military coordination between China and Pakistan remains an important component of the relationship. But, the discussion suggested, cooperation should increasingly extend to economic development, industry, technology and business. The objective should be to turn projects into industries and Chinese capabilities into Pakistani capacity.

The central challenge is therefore how to convert decades of strategic investment in friendship into growth-led and sustainable development. The recurring message was that solutions to Pakistan's economic and political challenges ultimately have to begin at home.

All eleven Chinese scholars agreed that the "iron brotherhood" between China and Pakistan was built over decades of mutual support, particularly during difficult periods, but believed that preserving the friendship also required updating its economic strategic content.

For Pakistan, the challenge is to convert the considerable strategic capital accumulated through decades of bilateral cooperation into productive capacity, industrial development, technological capability and sustained economic growth.

That is ultimately what CPEC 2.0 should seek to achieve: turning a longstanding strategic friendship into a foundation for sustainable development.