Global heat emergency

Germany's record heat-related death toll this summer should be a warning far beyond Europe. An estimated 14,000 people have died from heat-related causes in Germany this year, according to the Robert Koch Institute, with around 9,600 deaths occurring during a single week in late June when temperatures crossed 40°C in parts of the country. More than 10,000 of the estimated deaths were among people aged 75 and above.

In other parts of the world, France has reported more than 7,300 excess deaths during heatwaves this summer while Spain has recorded nearly 4,500 heat-related deaths since June 1. These numbers are not directly comparable because countries use different methods and reporting periods, but together they demonstrate the growing health burden of extreme heat. The economic consequences are also becoming harder to ignore. Germany's drought and heat have damaged crops and lowered water levels in major rivers used for cargo transport. Across Europe, fires have devastated forests and forced evacuations. More than 576,000 hectares had burned across Europe by mid-August. This is where the debate over climate policy needs greater honesty. Mitigation remains essential. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the only way to limit the longer-term escalation of global temperatures. But the consequences of past emissions are already being experienced.

It must be realised that prevention has limits when extreme conditions are becoming more frequent and severe. It is no longer enough to issue warnings once temperatures have already risen. Governments need to rethink what constitutes essential infrastructure in a warming climate. The real test of climate preparedness is not whether governments can accurately forecast a heatwave. It is whether that forecast triggers enough action to prevent people from dying. This summer's terrible figures suggest that Europe still has considerable work to do.