At the brink of all-out war

Tensions have escalated into open conflict once again after both the US and Iran called off their ceasefire. Tehran has reported mass casualties following US airstrikes that allegedly targeted civilian infrastructure, including bridges and an airport. With President Trump bent upon playing to the gallery - as he warns of more strikes to posture his leadership assertiveness ahead of the midterm primaries - a global meltdown on economic and strategic fronts is widely feared. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, sending oil prices spiralling by another 2%. More trouble is apparently yet to come, as the Houthis plan to shut down the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, technically rupturing oil, gas and cargo supplies on both flanks of the Mediterranean.

Iran's decision to strike alleged terrorist hideouts in Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region has intensified regional warmongering. Kurdistan Presidency condemned the actions as outrageous after Iranian drones were shot down over Erbil. Likewise, a surge in attacks over the last two days targeting Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base, Kuwait, Bahrain, and an airfield in Jordan is tantamount to pushing the region to the brink. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's unequivocal condition - demanding the closure of US bases to spare host countries - has introduced a volatile security dilemma. Wisely calculating a new self-defence paradigm, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are reportedly in talks with regional stakeholders, including Turkey, offering a hopeful sign towards eventual de-escalation.

The contestation warrants the opening of new avenues for talks. Gulf capitals can play a major role in persuading Washington to look at the bigger picture of regional tranquility and commit to diplomacy. Pakistan has reached out to both warring sides to broker a new thaw, and it is time its voice was heard. Continued attacks from Iran and a plausible maritime blockade pose an existential crisis to the entire region. Having already tested the limits of escalation, the warring sides face a foregone conclusion: this conflict could spiral completely out of control if geopolitical calculations go awry on a day of reckless brinkmanship.