G-B's verdict

The elections in Gilgit-Baltistan are all set to deliver a hung assembly, with PPP emerging as the single largest party securing 10 of the 24 seats up for grabs. The PML-N, an ally of the PPP at the Centre, has clinched six seats, whereas the PTI has ended up with two. Five Independent candidates as well as one candidate representing the religio-political MWM have also made it to the 33-strong House, also having six seats reserved for women and three for minorities. These results are, however, being contested across the board with even the coalition allies at the Centre disputing over the outcome. The JUI-F too has raised allegations of non-issuance of Forms 45 in real time, in what is again turning out to be a major point of contention in the vote count.

The PTI of the incarcerated former PM Imran Khan has outright rejected the outcome, alleging massive irregularities as well as manipulation of results in several constituencies. PTI's complaints of absence of a level-playing field were genuine, as the election campaign of the party, already stripped of its election symbol, faced intense pressure from the authorities. Likewise, delays in the announcement of results also cast serious doubts, apart from deployment of a heavy contingent of Punjab Police in the picturesque Northern Areas which, otherwise, witnessed a peaceful electioneering process.

If conventional politics is any guide, a PML-N or PPP victory was a safe bet, as local voters typically side with the political parties in power in Islamabad. As many as 396 candidates belonging to more than a dozen political parties, apart from the independents, ran for the legislature in the strategically important valley, which saw three chief ministers play roulette in the outgoing assembly. Based on the results received, a PPP-PML-N coalition remains the most likely government formation scenario. The only wild card would be an 'alliance of convenience' if the PTI, MWM, independents, and the PML-N agree to join forces to keep the PPP out of power.