Economy and agency

Had the world unfolded as scheduled, yesterday the finance minister would have risen in the National Assembly, cleared his throat and read out the numbers we all already knew. Today's column would then have performed its ancient ritual: a solemn autopsy of a speech conducted with the gravity of a man who has read more or less the same speech for thirty years. But apparently that is not how the world works any longer. The session got postponed, and you were spared from dealing with abstruse numbers. Why, you ask? Keep reading, and ye shall know.

Before we begin, let me assure you that I do not want to build an argument without submitting evidence. Carl Sagan's constant states that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. And once you have read this piece you will see evidence in every negative space, every dark corner and every unuttered word.

Before we take a deep dive into budget making and Pakistan's myriad problems, I must also share two anecdotes with you. This will add colour to the expose. One day when I was a young lad, I came across our resident Maulvi Sahab congratulating a neighbour for spending four months with the Tableeghi Jamaat. The young pilgrim was visibly flattered. But then the Maulvi dropped the bomb. He asked the subject to also grow a beard. The young man in reply asked the Maulvi to pray for him to grow a beard. The religious man couldn't stop himself and blurted out that he would have prayed for him if the beard did not grow, which obviously wasn't the case. I still remember the look on the young man's face.

Another story. Still in my youth. A case of marital promiscuity was brought to the village panchayat. The woman in question was accusing the man involved of using black magic because she did not know how she ended up with him.

What is worth noting in these two stories? Of course, agency and the lack of it. But you will agree with me that when your world is shaped by such exotic and spiritual experiences, you do not discount the supernatural possibilities at once.

At the start of this discussion I bragged about covering the political economy of the country for three decades. In this period, we have discussed the causes of revenue shortfalls, state-owned enterprises, structural problems, the bureaucracy's capacity issues, de-industrialisation, anti-export bias, centre-province relations and debt retirement to death. Also, what I found out in this long journey is that everyone involved in budget making, execution and disbursement is a good, virtuous and upright person. The members of our elite are falling over each other to pay more than their fair share of taxes. Our tax collectors lose sleep worrying about targets. Our local bureaucracy guards the allocated funds at their disposal with their life. Our development budgets are the most transparent in the region. Our business community sets aside huge chunks of its profits for research and development. I have not met even a single selfish politician. Our privileged tear down the statutory regulatory orders (SROs) giving them exemptions with extreme prejudice. Our banks resemble charity lenders who want to alleviate poverty and refuse to make a profit out of someone's suffering. The IMF gives us the best advice possible only as the banker of the last resort. All is good. And yet nothing moves. In fact, like Sisyphus's boulder, all targets refuse to stay where they are put. What gives then?

It is my considered opinion, and the one you are obliged to agree with, that somebody is casting black magic spells or the evil eye on our economy. There is no other rational explanation. Consider this: for decades before presenting the budget, successive prime ministers and finance ministers have met with the business leaders and key stakeholders, hearing their concerns, pledging to fix those problems and getting assurances of cooperation in return. But whenever the government imposes a super tax or a similar measure to make up for the revenue shortfalls, after all necessary consultations the very same stakeholders move the courts and our honourable justices often grant them interim relief. What other logical explanation can there be? Somebody does magic to mess up their judgment.

Similarly, why would a government set impossible tax collection targets? They must have assurance that this can be done. Remember, while we blame FBR for these shortfalls, we forget the extensive consultation activity that takes place between this institution and potential taxpayers before deciding such targets. Why does the retail sector go on strike whenever a documentation drive starts? Magic. And the real estate sector provides even bigger proof. Powerful people routinely and suddenly lose all agency and act as the sultanate's Manchurian candidates? And what allowed that sultanate to grow so strong? Black magic indeed.

Likewise is the case of circular debt, fixed meters, line losses and power theft. Look around. Can you spot one person who would do that to his or her country? I cannot. Then why do people do it? Because they are under the influence of magic. See. It is that easy to understand.

Now let us turn to the question of whodunnit. Who is casting these spells? When you listen to general opinion in the country, there is a broad consensus that everyone in this wide world is out to get us. But if there is one country that tops the list in malice, it is India. India has a widespread culture of esoteric, exotic and magical mysticism. I am sure India is deploying some of those magicians to make us forget what is good for us.

By this time in any column, I start offering some soulful solutions. Sometimes a grand national debate for ensuring inter-institutional and inter-entity (federal and provincial) harmony. Sometimes I suggest a truth and reconciliation commission to put the ghosts of the past to rest. But what is the point? We ostensibly do not have the required agency to mould our future. Our first priority should be to reclaim this agency. How do we do that? Instead of a grand national debate we need a grand national exorcism first. Let us call the spiritual experts from around the world to congregate in Islamabad and collectively exorcise all our demons. Only then can we get to the lofty goal of nation-building.

Postscript: if you cannot tell that this is an acerbic piece of satire you deserve a national award.