Iran’s operational momentum contradicts US claims of capacity loss

Data shows Iran launched 200 missiles at Israel over the past week, equivalent to 31% of total missiles fired in war

Despite claims by United States officials that Iran’s missile and drone capabilities have been largely destroyed, data from recent weeks suggests Tehran’s operational capacity has shown no significant decline, with attacks continuing at a steady pace across Israel and several regional countries since February 28.

According to data compiled by Anadolu from defence and interior ministries of the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Jordan, as well as the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), open-source intelligence platforms and data-analysis social media accounts, Iran has launched 6,770 missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) at Jordan, Gulf countries hosting US military and financial assets, and Israel since February 28 under its retaliation strategy.

The largest share of these attacks targeted the UAE with 2,429 strikes, followed by Israel with 1,365 and Kuwait with 950. However, INSS data indicates that Iran used 600 missiles and 765 drones in its retaliatory attacks on Israel alone.

Steady pace of attacks on Israel

Iran’s attacks on Israel and the damage caused have followed a relatively stable pattern, with missile and drone waves ranging between seven and 10 in the past week.

According to INSS data, Iran launched 215 drone attacks on Israel in the past week alone, accounting for approximately 28% of the total UAV attacks carried out over four weeks.

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Considering that Iran had conducted around 500 drone retaliatory attacks on Israel as of March 19, the addition of 215 attacks in the past week indicates no significant change in Iran’s operational capacity.

INSS also reported that Iran launched 200 missiles at Israel over the past week, equivalent to 31% of the total 585 missiles fired over four weeks.

Analysts note that if Iran’s missile capability had been largely destroyed, this ratio would likely remain below 25%. The figure exceeding 30% suggests Iran’s strike capacity remains largely intact.

On March 26, US President Donald Trump said that approximately 90% of Iran’s missile and launch systems had been disabled, adding that the production capacity of drones, missiles and related facilities had also been significantly reduced.

UAE, Kuwait most targeted in Gulf

Despite daily fluctuations, the frequency of Iranian attacks on Gulf countries has remained stable in weekly averages compared to the first week following February 28.

Between February 28 and March 31, Iran targeted the UAE the most, launching 2,429 missiles and drones. Kuwait ranked second among Gulf states with 950 strikes.

According to available data, Qatar had been targeted by 256 missiles and drones since February 28, with the last recorded attack taking place on March 19.

Iran resumed attacks after Qatar signed a strategic defence cooperation agreement with Ukraine on March 28 that included experience-sharing in missile and UAV warfare.

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Saudi Arabia, which initially faced relatively fewer attacks, saw an increase beginning on March 11. Strikes peaked on March 16 when Iran used 98 missiles and drones.

However, attacks dropped to around 30 per day in the early days of the fourth week and later declined further.

One of the most notable incidents occurred on March 27, when Iran destroyed a US E-3 Sentry valued at approximately $300 million at Prince Sultan Air Base.

Attacks on Bahrain have declined in recent days, while strikes targeting Jordan have also shown a downward trend over the past two weeks.

An Iranian attack on March 29 damaged two aluminium factories in Bahrain and the UAE.

Following relatively low attack levels in the first two weeks, Iran also carried out a drone strike on Oman on March 28.

US, Israel conduct nearly 21,000 strikes on Iran

According to the White House, the US had struck “more than 11,000 enemy targets” in Iran as of March 30.

The White House stated that Iran’s ballistic missile and drone attacks decreased by roughly 90% and that more than 150 naval vessels, including 92% of Iran’s largest ships, were destroyed.

Meanwhile, the Israeli forces reported that more than 800 waves of air strikes had been conducted using approximately 16,000 bombs and missiles across Iran.

These strikes targeted over 4,000 objectives, including air defence systems, ballistic missile launchers, weapons production facilities, nuclear sites, military headquarters, and both military commanders and political leaders, with more than 10,000 individual strikes carried out in total.