Northern Pakistan faces rising glacier flood risks amid winter heat

Daytime temperatures are 3–5°C above normal, while nighttime were 1–3.5°C above the 1981–2010 climatological average

Northern Pakistan is experiencing below-average rainfall and snowfall this winter, raising concerns over accelerated glacier melt and potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said in a statement on Monday.

According to the PMD, reduced precipitation and prolonged clear-sky conditions have contributed to unusually stable atmospheric patterns and significantly elevated temperatures across Gilgit-Baltistan during the first three weeks of February.

Daytime temperatures were recorded 3–5°C above normal, while nighttime temperatures remained 1–3.5°C above the 1981–2010 climatological average. Gilgit and Bunji have experienced the highest daytime warming, with Chilas and Bunji also showing notable increases in minimum temperatures, reducing overnight refreezing and accelerating snow and glacier melt at mid- to lower-altitude regions, the statement added.

“Reduced nighttime cooling further enhances meltwater runoff into glacial lakes. Rapid melting increases water accumulation in both moraine- and glacier-dammed lakes, raising the likelihood of GLOF events in downstream valleys,” the PMD reported.

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The department’s outlook for February to April 2026 predicts a high probability of above-normal temperatures across northern Pakistan, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir. Areas most at risk include Gilgit, Ghizar, Hunza, Bunji, Chilas, and Astore.

Average temperature anomalies recorded between February 1 and 22 show daytime temperatures rising to 4.7°C above normal in Gilgit, while nighttime anomalies reached 3.4°C in Chilas.

The PMD said it is closely monitoring temperature trends, glacier melt conditions, and hydrometeorological parameters and will issue timely advisories to authorities and local communities.