Aid cut toll

The latest, most wide-ranging modelling published in The Lancet Global Health paints a stark picture of evidence that should immediately shake the general public out of slumber. It illustrates that if major donor countries like the United States and the United Kingdom continue down the path of cutting overseas aid, we are looking at up to 22-23 million avoidable deaths by 2030 — including more than five million children under five.

Unfortunately, this isn't a made-up figure that is completely relying on hypotheticals. Global funding cuts from major donors have been unfolding for several years and have accelerated recently due to political, economic and policy changes in those countries. The almost 23 million deaths are akin to a prediction in the foreseeable future. These are real people; communities where vaccines have mitigated diseases for decades, clean water has saved lives, and basic medicine has kept mother and children safe.

For two decades, official development aid helped reduce child mortality by an estimated 39% and dramatically lowered deaths from HIV, malaria and malnutrition. But now with aid budgets slashed — the US halving its foreign aid and the UK cutting its aid from 0.5% to 0.3% of its GDP — that progress is being rolled back.

In wealthy democracies, debating whether to cut a fraction of national income is framed as fiscal debate. On the other hand, that fraction of a cost is the deciding factor in whether someone gets to see their child live or die. It is important that on-ground realities are as important to public policy as economics.

Donor governments must halt further cuts and restore their funding. Aid also needs clearer accountability and stronger partnership with local institutions so that smarter investments can be made in the local community. Reversing these cuts is a matter of shared humanity as well as global stability.