Blundering towards chaos

With increasingly dangerous confrontation between major powers, the outbreak of conflicts and crisis worldwide, a global economic meltdown, a growing climate crisis, the virtual irrelevance of the United Nations system and the utter disregard for international law, the world today is inexorably blundering towards chaos. The recent American abduction of the Venezuelan president on spurious grounds, the threat to occupy Greenland and the creation of a Board of Peace as a supranational organisation are symptomatic of this trend.

This situation is alarmingly reminiscent of the circumstances that led to both the first and second world wars when the international order collapsed due to the expansionist and belligerent policies of some major powers, undermining the global balance of power. The United Nations system that emerged in 1945 under the shadow of nuclear weapons has survived so far despite the Cold War because of the nuclear balance of terror, enforced by the reality of mutual assured destruction. However, this balance has been severely tested — especially since the end of the Cold War and the emergence of the US as the sole superpower.

Perhaps the most destabilising event in modern history was the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 which undermined the biopolar balance of terror, enabling American hegemony in a unipolar world. Even though the end of Cold War presented an opportunity to establish an equitable and stable world order, free from ideological and geopolitical contestation, this opportunity was squandered by American imperial hubris, determined to impose global domination and prevent the emergence of any peer competitor. Through policies of unilateralism and preemption, America tried to impose its role as the "indispensable nation", exploiting universal values of freedom, democracy and human rights as pretexts to secure American geopolitical interests. Apart from invasions and regime changes in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libiya and Syria, successive American administrations incrementally enlarged NATO eastwards to contain Russia in Europe while the "Pivot" to Asia sought to encircle China — the two powers that potentially challenged American supremacy.

Even as this imperial overreach subsequently exposed the limits of American power, while a resurgent Russia and a rising China aligned to enforce a multipolar global order, Washington has refused to accept this reality. Instead, Republican and Democrat administrations have pursued national security strategies aimed at "full spectrum dominance" and "over-match" in strategic competition with great power rivals. In Europe, such policies have raised the spectre of nuclear conflict with Russia, by accident if not by intention, since the expansion of NATO to include Ukraine has crossed a Russian red line. In the Asia Pacific, American-led alliances like Quad and AUKUS to control the sea-lanes along with the rearming of Taiwan raise the risks of a conflict with China.

Such geopolitical confrontation between the great powers has been accentuated by the competition in the military, economic, trade and technological spheres, leading to American sanctions and tariffs on its opponents. At the same time, the US has continued to destabilise countries in the developing world. At the behest of Israel, the US has abetted genocide against the Palestinians and attacked Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Somalia and Yemen among other countries in Africa and Latin America.

The expectation that under President Trump, who campaigned on ending foreign wars and opposing external interventions, the US would accept a stable multipolar order has now proved to be naive to say the least. In reality, Trump's 'America First' and 'MAGA' agenda is actually a prescription for unvarnished and unapologetic 21st Century American imperialism for which he no longer seeks justification or legitimacy behind the facade of promoting democracy and freedom as was done by his predecessors. Accordingly, the 'Trump Corollary' to the Monroe Doctrine is not an aberration but the true manifestation of unilateralist American policy. While Trump may not resort to armed invasions, he will use military force for surgical strikes along with sanctions and tariffs to further American interests.

As such, the waning of American power in a multipolar world has not encouraged responsible behaviour by Trump but an even more belligerent and reckless America that threatens eventual collapse of the world order. Trump has not just claimed an American sphere of influence in Latin America consistent with the Monroe Doctrine to the exclusion of external powers; he claims the right to extend American interests in other parts of the world as well. Consequently, the attack on Venezuela could be repeated not only in Mexico, Colombia, Panama or Cuba but also in Greenland, Iran, Nigeria or any other country where Trump considers American interests are served.

Yet, the enigma is that Trump also seeks engagement where the stakes are too high as with Russia over Ukraine or China over trade and Taiwan. It is, therefore, in specific areas and on the peripheries of great power interests that Trump is trying to further American objectives — to control oil and critical minerals for instance, as long as such interventions do not risk an open conflict with China or Russia or those that he can get away with.

While the absence of effective international reaction or counter-balancing so far has encouraged and emboldened Trump after the attacks on Iran and Venezuela, he seems not to have learnt any lessons from the American quagmires in Afghanistan or Iraq or even from the regime changes in the Middle East or in Latin America. But the risks from such adventurism remain. It is only a matter of time before Trump overplays his hand, leading to yet another foreign military entanglement with disastrous consequences; or worse, a confrontation with China or Russia or both. Instead, Washington should join Beijing and Moscow to preserve and strengthen the international order in line with the UN Charter and international law, not undermine the UN system.

Trump's rejection of this order and determination to follow his 'own morality' will prove to be a recipe for disaster. This would not only undermine American interests but the international order itself. In the nuclear age this amounts to blundering towards chaos that may end in Armageddon.