Where Trump's world order is headed

Much against the portrayed anti-war aura, President Donald Trump is increasingly relying on a hybrid approach. Such a strategy mixes military and non-military means to reclaim the lost turf as global hegemon, albeit without shouldering any responsibility in a state-centric manner. He has been deceptive too; resorting to kinetics, using negotiation as a façade.

That Trump is unpredictable has proven correct. And the fact remains that he is ultra nationalist. Making "America Great Again" is his first priority; no matter whatever the cost, but that is the "others pay".

Trump is expected to go ahead with "Donroe Doctrine", with a unilateral approach in interstate relations. Rules-based world order, international law, Vienna and Geneva Conventions and norms can take a backseat.

Geo-economics embedded in control of energy, minerals and trade routes, buttressed by sanctions and military power, will be Trump's "Order of the Day".

This makes the world apprehensive and less stable pushing it back to the time of alliances for traditional as well as non-traditional security, mercantilism and protectionism.

The US raid on Venezuela creates another model. It could engender emulation by other greater powers and breed insecurity in smaller states pushing them into forging mini-laterals, or seeking a security umbrella from regional powers.

Possible scenarios on the US-Iran standoff and future options for Pakistan must be discussed in this backdrop. Consequent to the US's Israel-centric view of the Middle East, Iran has endured unprecedented economic and social consequences over the past five decades. The Iranian people, under tremendous socioeconomic stress, resorted to protests. But when these protests were labelled as Mossad- and US-sponsored, they lost steam.

Likely objective of the US is to force a behavioural change to induce Iran to accept US-Israel hegemony in the Arabian Peninsula, and Africa becoming a pliant state. At a minimum, it could be that Iran concedes to co-exist with Israel, joining Abraham Accords. To attain these ends, the US has two possible options.

First option for the US is to resort to gradual escalation, transiting to the hard approach. It may unfold in stages, with the possibility to exit at any juncture on materialisation of the intended objectives. Linear in classic sense, this option may encompass Iranian naval blockade, accompanied by harsher economic sanctions, graduating to selective extraction and/or elimination of higher rung leadership, strikes on military, economic, energy producing hubs, bridges, industrial areas and civic facilities to force capitulation, and also to turn Iranian people against the ruling elite because of continuous infliction of pain, dearth of commodities and energy, and breakdown of civic infrastructure.

A second option could comprise hybrid non-kinetic means complemented by diplomacy to attain the policy ends. Use of 5th columnists, CIA and Mossad agents, terrorist organisations present in the region, including Afghanistan, disinformation, deep-fake, technological & cyber warfare, and AI, aimed at demonising regime and demoralising people and forces, shall essentially complement these options.

Both for Iran and the US, preferred and less expensive in economic, human and military terms should be a mediated and negotiated settlement aimed at peaceful coexistence.

For Pakistan, it is a difficult time too. Instability in Iran could feed into destabilisation of Pakistan. Afghanistan is non-cooperative in denying its territory to terrorists operating against Pakistan, China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, etc which makes such a situation more challenging.

We must continue to use all politico-economic and diplomatic means to pressurise Afghanistan for desisting from housing terrorists. We must keep our relations with China and the US detached from each other. To improve the economy and ensure comprehensive security, we must develop good ties with all regional and extra-regional countries. People-to-people and business-to-business relations should take precedence for developing long-term sustainable and mutually beneficial relations.