Will PTI get political space in 2026?

Experts say so-called hybrid system will further consolidate grip on power in new year

ISLAMABAD:

Pakistan enters 2026 with its biggest political question still unanswered: what will happen to PTI founder Imran Khan.

His supporters were hoping for relief in 2025 when Donald Trump returned to the White House. However, those hopes proved short-lived, as Trump never mentioned Imran, let alone exerting pressure on the government or the powers-that-be for his release.

Instead, analysts believe that 2025 was the year in which the current political dispensation, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, further consolidated its position. They argue that the trend is likely to continue into 2026.

Ahmad Bilal Mehboob, chairman of PILDAT, sees Pakistan's "hybrid system" growing stronger in 2026. He told The Express Tribune that the hybrid model of governance has become more formalised and is expected to further consolidate in the coming year.

"This trend, visible over the past year through changes in the judiciary and political landscape, is unlikely to be temporary and points towards further consolidation of a security-centric governance model," he added.

The government, backed by the establishment, introduced several constitutional amendments in 2025 that resulted in major structural changes to governance and power centres.

Senior political analyst Zaigham Khan, on the other hand, described 2025 as a "fortunate year" for the government, largely due to favourable international developments.

He said regional events — particularly actions by India under Modi and Israel under Netanyahu — made Pakistan increasingly significant in security terms, especially for the Arab world.

This shift, he said, positioned Pakistan as a net security provider and an emerging middle power.

"The key challenge for 2026 will be converting these geostrategic gains into tangible economic benefits," he said.

However, Haris Khalique, secretary-general of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, warned that increased concentration of power in 2026 could seriously undermine civil liberties.

"As we enter 2026, democratic backsliding continues, while good governance, rule of law, and protection of fundamental rights remain under stress.

"Nothing will change overnight, but the powers-that-be must realise that excessive internal control and suppression of dissent rarely benefit any state or society," he told The Express Tribune.

Khalique pointed out that 44.7 percent of Pakistan's population lives below the poverty line, while 88 per cent earn less than a living wage.

He argued that security, governance, and development policies require major restructuring, adding that territorial security cannot be achieved without ensuring human security.

He further emphasised that meaningful political dialogue is essential. While those in power must initiate the process, the PTI also needs to demonstrate a willingness to engage with other political forces.

Fate of the PTI founder

Regarding Imran Khan's future, Zaigham expects no significant change in 2026 — or even over the next four to five years — unless there is a major shift, either through external pressure or a strategic decision by the PTI to operate within the existing political framework. "Even then, quick relief seems unlikely," he said.

Mehboob believes the PTI leader's future largely depends on his political choices.

"If he continues protests and confrontation, compromise is unlikely. However, opting for dialogue could reduce pressure on both him and his party."

He added that the next general election, expected in 2029 or slightly earlier, would be the real test of Khan's political future. "There is little indication of a major change before then."

On PTI's political space, Mehboob noted that as long as the Shehbaz Sharif government and the establishment remain aligned, the government is likely to continue consolidating power.

PTI's confrontational strategy, he said, limits its prospects. Meanwhile, Shehbaz Sharif's backing of the hybrid model, along with his performance in foreign policy, the economy, law and order, and reforms, currently positions him as the stronger option.

Nawaz Sharif's role

Although Nawaz Sharif still appears to be in charge of the PML-N, he maintained a relatively low profile in 2025. Some observers believe the three-time former prime minister has already played his political innings and is no longer central to national politics.

Zaigham disagrees, asserting that Nawaz Sharif will remain politically relevant in 2026. He argued that Nawaz continues to be the central figure within the PML-N, with key party decisions made under his leadership.

While not seeking public office, Zaigham said Nawaz Sharif is focused on safeguarding the party's legacy and grooming Maryam Nawaz for leadership. Whether Maryam can fully assume his role and regain public trust remains a critical question.

Mehboob believes Nawaz Sharif is proceeding cautiously. "For now, he appears careful, avoiding any move that could disrupt the process or destabilise his brother Shehbaz Sharif's government." He added that Nawaz Sharif could re-enter active politics when he judges the timing to be appropriate.

As Pakistan stands at a crossroads marked by political uncertainty and evolving regional dynamics, analysts agree that the country's future hinges on the willingness of all stakeholders to engage in genuine dialogue, pursue meaningful reforms, and balance security concerns with the rights and well-being of citizens.