Country faces 'demographic double bind'

New US data shows reduced fertility but rising numbers

Pakistan's demographic trajectory presents a formidable double bind: while key indicators like fertility and growth rates are declining, the sheer number of citizens continues to surge, placing immense and growing strain on the nation's infrastructure.

According to new figures released by the US Census Bureau, Pakistan's population has now crossed an estimated 257 million, entrenching its status among the world's most populous nations even as it navigates a fraught demographic transition.

The data underscores a critical phase. The annual population growth rate has slowed to 1.82%, and the fertility rate has dropped to 3.25 births per woman. Yet, with fertility still well above the replacement level of 2.1, absolute growth is locked in for a generation.

Economists warn that the heavily youth-driven population structure will create mounting pressure on education, housing, transport, and — most critically — employment through the 2030s and 2040s. Without accelerated job creation and sustained economic growth, they caution, this "youth bulge" could transform from a potential dividend into a long-term source of instability.

Beyond the numbers, the report highlights persistent developmental shortfalls. A life expectancy of just 60.5 years and an under-five mortality rate of nearly 65 deaths per 1,000 live births point to chronic weaknesses in maternal health, nutrition, and primary healthcare.

With a population density of 333 people per square kilometre, pressure on land and public services is acute. Urban centres, where informal settlements are expanding and transport networks are clogged, show visible strain as infrastructure development lags "dangerously behind" demographic realities.

A regional comparison sharpens the picture. Neighbours India and Bangladesh have reduced fertility to near or below replacement level, coupling slower growth with advances in health and education.

In contrast, Afghanistan, with fertility above four births, exemplifies how conflict stalls demographic transition. Pakistan sits at a crucial midpoint: progress is evident, but its pace is insufficient to relieve near-term pressures.

Globally, population growth is slowing to historic lows, but Pakistan's path is distinct. Demographers stress that the window for action is narrowing. Without urgent, targeted investment in girls' education, reproductive health, and employment generation, the nation risks entering the latter half of the century with an ageing population and underdeveloped human capital — a combination that could cement prolonged economic stagnation. The demographic clock is ticking, and the cost of inaction, analysts conclude, will be measured in stability and growth forgone.