Sugar, gas push up yearly SPI to 4%

Rates of tomatoes, onions, potatoes plunge; weekly reading falls 0.64%

KARACHI:

Short-term inflation in Pakistan continued to heat up as the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended December 4, 2025 recorded a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 4%. However, on a week-on-week (WoW) basis, the SPI fell by a sharp 0.64%, offering some relief to households ahead of winter.

The YoY rise of a modest 4% reflects a significant cooling of short-term inflation. Over the past 12 months, the sharpest price increases were recorded in sugar, which surged 37.49%, followed by first-quarter gas charges at 29.85%, wheat flour 17.50%, gur 15.06%, beef 13.47% and firewood 12.59%.

Bananas climbed 11.06%, powdered milk 9.03%, high-speed diesel 8.42%, printed lawn 8.29%, five-litre cooking oil 8.19% and 2.5kg vegetable ghee 7.59%.

In contrast, substantial relief came from several key kitchen items that posted large declines compared to the corresponding week of 2024. Potatoes led the fall with a remarkable drop of 40.47%, followed by garlic at -38.51%, tomatoes -31.51%, onions -29.87% and pulse gram -29.54%.

Lipton Yellow Label tea became 17.79% cheaper, pulse mash fell 13.82%, first-quarter electricity charges eased 8.40% and packaged salt powder declined 5.13%.

The WoW decline was driven primarily by a crash in perishable food prices. Tomatoes plunged 30.11%, onions dropped 12.41%, potatoes fell 6.92% and chicken eased 4.46%. Sugar, which has been a major inflation driver throughout the year, also softened 3.31% over the week, while pulses, gur, petrol (-0.73%) and high-speed diesel (-1.67%) contributed further to the weekly deflation.

However, not all items moved downwards. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) jumped 3.50%, garlic rose 1.86% and cooking oil and fats saw modest increases, with five-litre cooking oil tins up 1.54% and 1kg vegetable ghee pouches up 0.40%. Eggs, bread, powdered milk and cigarettes also posted small gains.

Of the 51 essential items tracked across 17 cities, prices of 13 items (25.5%) rose, 15 items (29.4%) fell and 23 items (45.1%) remained unchanged during the week under review.

The poorest households (Quintile 1) experienced the largest weekly relief (-0.96%) and the lowest annual inflation (3.31%), while middle-income groups faced slightly higher YoY reading of around 4.2%.

The combined SPI stood at 335.84, down from 337.99 in the previous week but still 4% above the corresponding week of 2024. The continued easing of weekly inflation reflects improved supplies of vegetables, falling international oil prices and a stable rupee, providing some respite after years of double-digit SPI readings.

Analysts expect the downward trend to persist in the coming weeks unless disrupted by fresh energy tariff adjustments or winter demand pressures.