Saudi-Israel normalisation is dead — for now

Saudi Arabia's approach to the Palestinian issue has long been shaped by King Faisal's vision. In 1967, when Israel attacked and defeated Egypt, Jordan and Syria; captured Gaza Strip, West Bank and East Jerusalem; and brought one million Palestinians under its control, King Faisal made East Jerusalem and Palestine the centerpiece of his diplomacy.

The 1973 Arab-Israel war further underscored his strategic acumen. As a shaken Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir pleaded with Washington for arms, US President Richard Nixon's Operation Nickel Grass eventually saved Israel. But Faisal's oil embargo — placed on Egyptian President Anwar Sadat's request — dealt a crippling blow to the American economy.

Commending Faisal's religious conviction and foresight, former US presidential adviser Bruce Riedel noted the King soon realised that Nixon aimed to lift military pressure on Israel from Egypt, allowing it to consolidate its hold on East Jerusalem. "As it has now for five decades. Faisal was right."

King Faisal's assassination in 1975 marked the loss of a leader who confronted Zionist expansionism and Western imperialism; it silenced one of Islam's most unifying voices. By 1977, Sadat was addressing the Knesset on peace and soon Egypt would become the first Arab country to normalise ties with Tel Aviv — fracturing regional consensus on Palestine.

Even so, Prince Salman (now King) sustained the mission Faisal entrusted in 1969, mobilising public support for Palestine. In 2002, he countered Zionist slogan "A dollar you donate kills an Arab" with "A riyal you donate saves an Arab". As a King, he has rejected any arrangement that excludes East Jerusalem from a future Palestinian state.

Recently, Donald Trump has stepped up pressure on Saudi Arabia to join Abraham Accords. Through the treaties, which omitted Palestinian issue, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan in 2020 established relations with Israel to secure peace. But for Benjamin Netanyahu, this buyoff of a two-state solution was a vindication of his military doctrine, cementing faith in normalisation without ending occupation.

Before the Hamas attack of Oct 7, 2023, Riyadh too was on the threshold of formalising ties. Yet Israel's war in Gaza terminated this trajectory.

Israel's genocidal campaign has since made normalisation politically untenable and strategically unwise, pushing Riyadh back to its earlier position. Trump's push to bring Riyadh into fold faces another obstacle. Saudi conservatives resent the country's liberal direction. With polls showing 81% Saudis oppose Accords, embracing Israel now risks igniting public outrage.

Befuddling matters, far-right Israeli ministers — promoting ghastly ideas of expanding territorial expansion, starving Palestinians to death and resuming war — undermine any compromise. Netanyahu's coalition partner Bezalel Stomrich's sneer — Riyadh can "keep riding camels in the Saudi desert" if it wants a two-state deal — reveal a deep schism between Saudi insistence and Israeli defiance to such a solution.

Trump's vague nod to Palestinian statehood and Israeli threats to annex West Bank and ceasefire violations reinforce perception that while Washington wants to keep the illusion of a Palestinian state alive, Tel Aviv seeks to crush it. For Riyadh, these signals underline the need to tread with caution.

Involvement of quasi-colonial figures like former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, condemned for his disastrous role in 2003 Iraq invasion, in post-war Gaza governance is rankling regional states too. His perceived bias toward Israel as Quartet envoy long ago discredited him as a neutral mediator.

For much of the Arab world, his return evokes harrowing reminiscences of British colonialism. The 1917 Balfour Declaration pledged a "national home for the Jewish people" in Palestine; the 1922 British Mandate authorised London to establish it. By Mandate's end, Britain-backed Zionist forces had captured 77% of Palestine, proclaiming independence as Israel in 1948.

While Riyadh held its ground, Egypt's breakaway from a unified Arab response eased pressure on Israel, opening the floodgates for others. Riding the tide of slow-motion regional fragmentation and US support, Israel continues to block an independent Palestinian state, claiming Accords as a symbol of peace.

Yet the Gaza crisis and Israel's expansionist ambitions state otherwise. Far from bringing stability, normalisation without Palestinian rights has normalised Tel Aviv's aggression, encouraging it to wield military power as a tool to force other countries into signing treaties or face hostility.

Netanyahu's perpetual belligerence even after achieving all of his Gaza war goals, resistance to a Palestinian state and military campaigns across the region have made it increasingly difficult for Saudi Arabia to defend rapprochement with Israel.

As a result, Riyadh now finds itself embroiled in a strategic quagmire: it wants to straighten out relations with Israel while preserving its historic mantle as guardian of Palestinian cause and steward of Islam's two most sacred places, Mecca and Medina. Only a firm Israeli commitment to Palestinian statehood could help Saudi Arabia to navigate this dilemma. Simply put, Riyadh's accession and credibility across the Muslim world pivots on Netanyahu — who has stubbornly denied any Palestinian state.

Saudi Arabia may still envisage a future where pragmatism prevails but not at the cost of internal stability and historical identity. Trump's elusive promises and Netanyahu's intransigence to Palestinian statehood further complicate any Saudi move to formalise ties with Tel Aviv anytime soon.

From the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty to the 2020 Abraham Accords, normalisation that sidestepped Palestinian rights did nothing to advance regional peace. Instead, it emboldened Israel to entrench its occupation and establish its dominance in the Middle East.

As long as Israeli war machinery grinds on and an independent Palestine with East Jerusalem as its capital remains a mirage, the prospect of Saudi Arabia's accession to the Accords anytime soon is remote.