Ties with Israel

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's latest remarks in Washington mark a significant inflection point in Middle Eastern diplomacy. His willingness to join the Abraham Accords — the Trump-era framework that normalised ties between Israel and several Arab states — is not only Riyadh's strategic ambitions but also the shifting geopolitical landscape. Yet, unlike earlier signatories who rushed toward normalisation to secure defence pacts or economic benefits, Saudi Arabia is drawing a clear red line that there will be no formal ties without a credible path to Palestinian statehood. This is not diplomatic hedging but a recalibration of Saudi influence.

By insisting on a "clear path", Riyadh is elevating the Palestinian question back to the centre of regional negotiations after years in which it was treated as an inconvenient footnote. The kingdom is effectively telling Washington and Tel Aviv that normalisation cannot be a shortcut around Palestinian rights. Trump, for his part, was quick to frame the exchange as a win for his foreign policy, declaring he had received a "positive response" from the crown prince. But branding it that way oversimplifies the complexity of Saudi objectives. MBS is not offering unconditional alignment. Instead, he is staking out a position that places responsibility on the US to deliver more than symbolic peace processes.

Yet this insistence comes at a time when Israel's intentions appear increasingly detached from the two-state vision. The recently unveiled 20-point peace plan for Gaza, widely discussed as a post-war roadmap, conspicuously avoided any mention of a Palestinian statehood or future normalisation frameworks. More troublingly, the plan read less like a blueprint for peace and more like a strategy for dismantling Hamas, indicating that Israel has long attempted to obscure a genuine two-state solution. The gap between Saudi expectations and Israeli priorities hints at upcoming fragility.