Pakistan's 2026 monsoon season will be 26% wetter: NDMA

Added risk of flooding from snowmelt from the country's 7,000 glaciers

The 2026 monsoon is projected to bring 22 to 26 per cent more rainfall than this year's, the NDMA said, preceded by a short winter and intense summer.

This isn’t new news, though. In a Public Accounts Committee meeting in August, the NDMA had repeated the same 22 to 26 per cent figure.

"There is a significant risk of flooding from snowmelt," the Chairperson of the National Disaster Management Authority General Inam Haider warned, noting that heat waves will likely trigger increased glacial lake outburst floods. “Pakistan's more than 7,000 glaciers are melting at rates that have increased by two to three per cent”.

The Climate Change Minister Musadik Malik said that in the past three to four floods, 4,570 people have lost their lives, "Not even our wars have claimed so many lives".

"The human cost extends far beyond casualties. An estimated 40 million people have been displaced by the last four major floods, including 20 million children and 20 million mothers," Malik said, describing families watching homes built over eight years of labour wash away in hours.

The economic toll has been equally devastating. The 2022 floods alone caused damage exceeding 9 per cent of Pakistan's GDP, with direct losses accounting for 4.5 per cent. "We struggle to grow GDP by three or four per cent, and nine per cent is destroyed by floods," Malik said, highlighting the futility of development efforts in the face of accelerating climate disasters.

Read: Punjab forms parliamentary body to lead flood rehabilitation

The minister announced that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has approved emergency preparedness plans following projections of an exceptionally severe 2026 monsoon season, compounded by accelerated glacial melt from heat waves.

Over the next 200 days, authorities will repair bridges and flood gates damaged in previous disasters while integrating early warning systems from the district level up to the federal capital.

“The region has one of the best early warning systems,” said the Chairperson of the NDMA stated explaining that data is received from 370 satellites, and local communities have been trained on how to respond to natural disasters. “Our system is integrated with the world’s leading early weather intelligence systems,” he added.

However, NDMA’s leading system failed to cover much ground this year as Senators have accused the NDMA of failing to warn the country of the disaster to come in the face of the 2025 monsoon. "Is its job only to collect bodies? If the NDMA is responsible for early warnings and weather updates, then what is the role of the meteorological department?" demanded Senators.

The minister announced that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has approved emergency preparedness plans following projections of an exceptionally severe 2026 monsoon season, compounded by accelerated glacial melt from heat waves.

“Our top priority is to ensure that the initial alert rings at the location where the natural disaster is expected to occur”.

Read more: Floods inflict losses of Rs3,856 billion

General Inam has said a comprehensive 300-day plan will be presented to the prime minister, including measures to coordinate tourism in disaster-prone areas with emergency preparedness efforts.

The plan is expected to include establishing temporary schools in flood-affected areas and deploying mobile hospitals to disaster zones.

The early warning system will be redesigned so that the first alarm rings in the office of the assistant commissioner at the district level, enabling faster local response.