Impact of AI on warfare

AI is ushering in a new era of warfare defined by chip power, making warfare more lethal, faster and rapidly scalable. In the past the neophytes in warfare studies have been using the terms like nature, grammar and character of warfare rather loosely and most of the time interchangeably. Nothing however could be farther from the truth. All three terms have distinct meaning. The nature of war is defined by Clausewitz as the use of violence to attain a political purpose and is influenced by the interplay of politics, emotion and chance. Till the time any one element of the trinity does not get changed, the nature doesn't change.

Since antiquity many changes in tactics and technology have occurred but none has so far altered the nature of war. The character of war means conduct of warfare within certain ethical and human defined boundaries e.g. total war, limited war and asymmetric wars. The grammar of war refers to the use of technology that influenced tactics and techniques of warfare. The grammar and character of war have been changed several times but the nature remained the same despite revolutions in technology

The advent of AI for the first time in human history is altering all three i.e. the grammar, character and the nature of war. The grammar of war is being altered as the AI introduces new autonomous weapon systems taking independent decisions while the character is being changed as the boundaries between different forms of warfare get blurred due to AI enabled non-human agency. Finally, the nature of war is being changed due to absence of human agency and element of chance which is being minimised by algorithm driven autonomous weapon and surveillance systems.

Tomorrow's wars would be fought by autonomous robots, unmanned aerial as well ground weapons, accompanied by AI-driven transportation and logistics systems. The reliance on AI-assisted command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance means for better situational awareness in wars and quicker decision-making for lethal kills is increasing human reliance on machines. The emerging technologies like Lethal Autonomous Weapons, Space Warfare, AI-enabled weapons and Brain-Computer Interface are increasing the tempo of warfare beyond human control. Future warfare belongs to AI enabled Multi Domain Networked Warfare (MDNW) where the ability to modify battle strategies and accelerate the OODA loop (observe, orient, decide, act) would clinch the battles for the better networked and automated armies. The age of AI has started ushering in a post RMA revolution of the kind the world has not seen before.

AI-driven platforms that can select targets independently and attack free of human control are killers sans human agency. When the human being is taken out of the decision loop the humanity is also taken out of the same loop. The "Martens Clause", a binding rule of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and the "Hague Convention's Article IV", requires the application of the principle of humanity and human agency in a combat situation. The mankind would need new rules for International Humanitarian Law (IHL) in order to wage war with the help of AI. The capability of reining in the AI-driven munitions through a "Kill Switch" mechanism needs to be developed by human beings before letting loose the AI on the battlefield.

In non-contact warfare strategies, the use of AI to deny services and degradation of economic potential of an adversary might be the preferred objectives. These could be achieved through AI-enabled espionage, subversion and cyberattacks. Imagine an AI-driven hacker penetrating into our cyber defences to hack our communications, aviation control or energy systems. In non-contact warfare strategies, the use of AI to deny services and degradation of economic potential of an adversary might be the preferred objectives. These could be achieved through AI-enabled espionage, subversion and cyberattacks. Imagine an AI-driven hacker penetrating into our cyber defences to hack our communications, aviation control or energy systems.

US Army is using "Ask Sage", an AI Generative platform for military tasks just as PLA China is using Baidu GPT an AI Generative platform for scenario generation in planning through predictive analytics, besides using it for transportation and medical care. US Companies like Palantir are employing AI for warfare systems, including partnerships with NATO and the US Army. These systems use AI to assist with tasks like intelligence fusion, targeting and battle planning. Examples include the NATO Maven Smart System and the US Army's TITAN system, which provide AI-powered decision support to soldiers at the tactical edge. The Chinese are using AI while integrating neural networks with hypersonic glide vehicles for precision guidance and improvement of situational awareness of hypersonic missile systems.

Chinese are also integrating AI with old jets such as J7 and J8 making them low-cost pilotless strike platforms that can attack with precision without pilots. Chinese AI company "Deepseek" has developed systems that can assess 10,000 battlefield scenarios in different terrain and force configurations in just 48 seconds. The armies without AI support perform the similar task in more than 48 days. US Neural Link company is working on Brain Computer Interface systems that could enable a soldier to control weapons by his thoughts and be able to suppress his fears in combat situation.

The risks to humanity include the automation bias due to reliance on AI that might lead towards rapid escalation of war without using human judgement. The soldiers using AI should be extremely adept in use of software with comprehensive knowledge of the limitations of AI weapon systems in order to be able to control them before these AI-driven systems cause harm due to the inherent limitations of their algorithms. There is a need for ethical guidelines at international law level and for embedding human control in weapon designs through "Kill Switches" and mitigation techniques to reduce discriminatory biases. This could be achieved through rigorous testing protocols before weapon deployment and equally strong export control and international verification mechanism.

New age of AI-driven warfare would require a common definition of restraint along with mutual restraint regime to keep the risks of uncontrolled escalation at bay. Non-AI proliferation Treaty like the nuclear NPT and an outright ban on AI-driven autonomous weapon systems might be the required instruments to keep the escalatory potential of the AI-driven warfare in check. Mankind must erect the guardrails before letting the AI genie out of the bottle.