Indo-Afghan nexus and regional realignment

The temporary lifting of the travel ban on Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi by the UN Security Council Committee marks a significant moment in South Asian diplomacy. His expected visit to India between October 9 and 16, following engagements in Moscow, signals Kabul's intent to recalibrate its regional ties. For Pakistan, this development is layered with strategic, humanitarian and security implications — especially as it undertakes the long-overdue repatriation of Afghan refugees.

Historically, India and Afghanistan have shared warm ties, particularly during the reigns of non-Taliban governments. India invested heavily in Afghanistan's reconstruction post-2001, contributing over $3 billion to developing infrastructure, education and health. The Salma Dam, the Afghan Parliament building and thousands of scholarships for Afghan students are a testament to this engagement.

However, the Taliban's return to power in 2021 disrupted this trajectory. India shuttered its Kabul embassy, only to reopen a technical mission a year later to coordinate humanitarian aid. Now, with Muttaqi's visit, India appears poised to cautiously re-engage. For Afghanistan, India offers potential economic lifelines, diplomatic recognition and regional legitimacy. For India, Afghanistan is a strategic buffer and a potential ally in countering Pakistan's influence.

India's interest in Afghanistan is not merely altruistic. Intelligence reports and regional observers have long pointed to India's use of Afghan soil — particularly through proxies and covert networks — to destabilise Pakistan. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have reportedly received logistical and financial support from Indian operatives in Afghanistan. While Kabul officially denies complicity, the porous nature of Afghan governance and its fragmented security apparatus raise serious concerns.

Pakistan has repeatedly flagged these threats at international forums, urging Afghanistan to honour its commitments under the Doha Agreement, which explicitly prohibits the use of Afghan territory for cross-border militancy. Yet, the Afghan government's silence or deflection on these matters has only deepened mistrust.

For over five decades, Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees — an act of unparalleled generosity in the region. From the Soviet invasion in 1979 to the post-9/11 war and Taliban resurgence, Pakistan bore the brunt of displacement, offering shelter, education and healthcare to generations of Afghans.

But this hospitality has come at a cost. Pakistan's urban centres, border districts and social services have been stretched thin. Empirical evidence links some refugee elements to criminal networks, drug trafficking and terrorism. The economic burden, coupled with national security risks, has compelled Pakistan to initiate a phased repatriation strategy. Refugees have been given multiple extensions, with the latest deadline set for September 30, 2025.

Pakistan has also urged the United States to expedite the relocation of 19,000 Afghan refugees awaiting resettlement. If Washington fails to act, Islamabad has made it clear: repatriation will proceed.

The Afghan government must recognise its dual responsibility: to reintegrate returning refugees and to prevent its soil from being weaponised against neighbours. The Doha Agreement was not merely a pact with the US — it was a promise to the region. Yet, the Taliban's internal policies betray this commitment.

Women remain barred from education and public life. Ethnic minorities face systemic exclusion. The Taliban's archaic governance model is dragging Afghanistan into a new dark age, alienating potential allies and undermining its own legitimacy. These internal failures are not just moral tragedies — they are strategic liabilities.

Despite Pakistan's unwavering support through wars, famines and political upheavals, Afghan regimes - past and present — have often reciprocated with suspicion or hostility. Instead of acknowledging Pakistan's sacrifices, Kabul has at times maligned Islamabad, accusing it of interference while ignoring the drain Afghan refugees pose on Pakistan's economy and stability.

This pattern of ingratitude has frayed the fraternal bond. Pakistan's patience is not infinite, and like other nations tightening their migration policies, it must prioritise its own citizens.

Amid these tensions, reports of the US seeking to reclaim the Balgram airbase in Afghanistan have stirred strategic anxieties. The base, once a hub for US operations, holds immense tactical value. Its revival could reshape regional dynamics, drawing China, Pakistan and India into a new geopolitical contest.

For Pakistan and China, a US foothold in Afghanistan could threaten Belt and Road corridors and regional autonomy. For India, it may offer leverage — but also risks entanglement in a renewed great game.

Muttaqi's visit to India is more than a diplomatic gesture — it is a litmus test for Afghanistan's regional posture. Will Kabul choose constructive engagement or covert hostility? Will it honour its promises or relapse into duplicity?

Pakistan, having shouldered Afghanistan's burdens for decades, deserves more than platitudes. It deserves respect, reciprocity and responsibility. Repatriation is not abandonment — it is a necessary reset. And if Afghanistan truly seeks peace, it must begin by cleaning its own house.