Brewing cotton crisis

Cotton farmers and related industries are facing another crisis year. Even though early reports were showing a 40% year-on-year increase in cotton arrivals by mid-September, trade groups are warning that these figures are masking a dire reality. Extreme weather events, including devastating heatwaves, torrential rains and catastrophic floods, coupled with the relentless spread of cotton leaf curl virus — outbreaks of which caused declines of as much as 35% in the 1990s — have placed Pakistan's most important cash crop under severe threat, potentially reducing yields to historically low levels.

Experts from the Central Cotton Research Institute in Multan warn that production losses could reach 0.6 to 1 million bales due to the recent floods alone, and national output may plummet to below five million bales, a staggering 70% decline from the record 14.8 million bales achieved in the 2011-12 season, and also below last year's totals, which had shown a significant decrease as well. Assuming the annual yield fails to cross five million, experts say we will need to import over six million bales at a cost of about $3 billion, putting immense pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

However, it is not just a forex issue — farmers in southern Punjab districts, such as Jalalpur Pirwala, Alipur and Lodhran, have suffered extensive damage, with Bahawalnagar's tehsils losing nearly 40% of their crops. Such losses can bankrupt small farms, while even larger farms can only sustain losses for so long.

This crisis has exposed some deep-seated systemic failures, especially among larger players across the value chain. The textile industry's focus on securing subsidies rather than investing in cotton research, as well as its inadequate adoption of climate-resilient farming practices, are among the most notable vulnerabilities. Unless these problems are addressed with investment in climate-smart agriculture and strengthening research institutions, cotton production will enter a permanent downward spiral.