Zeitenwende — historical turning point and need for a new norm

The world is in the midst of a momentous and complex metamorphosis, a "Zeitenwende" — a historic turning point as former German chancellor Olaf Scholz proclaimed on 27 February 2022 following the Russian attack on Ukraine. His verdict has since been validated by the subsequent appalling developments confronted by the world. The massive shift in US policy to re-orchestrate its role in international arena with the induction of President Donald Trump has ominously stirred the world.

The duo of "America First" and "Make America Greater than Ever Before (MAGA)", signifying a blend of ideological and conservative populism, has already exacted serious implications for the world order. The arbitrary and selective imposition of new tariffs regime and blatant use of intimidation and bare-knuckled power unequivocally speak of America's intent to determine and enforce the rules of international engagement to the contemptuous neglect of the universally agreed norms of multilateralism.

Humanity is also dumbfounded to witness, as a captive herd, "the real time, livestreamed and well-documented" genocide, bloodbath and ethnic cleansing ruthlessly unleashed by Israel in Gaza since October 2023. The death toll of Palestinians has surpassed 62,000 including those desperately seeking humanitarian aid amid tight siege of the Strip as a declared punitive policy and weapon of war.

The living conditions for the 2.4 million Gaza inhabitants are apocalyptic characterised by famine, hunger, disease and death — not to speak of almost total disruption of essential services and utilities. In all, the UN Security Council has voted on 14 resolutions to prevent Israel from the massacre of civilians, crimes against humanity and illegal occupation of Gaza but the savage oppressors, actively supported by the US and abetted by Europe, continue to scornfully ignore these resolutions and even the rulings of International Court of Justice.

The injudicious and discriminate use of might and money to ensure compliance of the asymmetric relationships, weaponise the structural advantage and perpetuate dependency-relations through economic instruments and international institutions has thus become the new norm. It is also abundantly evident historically that the defining features of the world order i.e. multilateralism, rules and standards-based norms and institutions, state sovereignty, protection of human rights, open economy, pluralism and democracy are interpreted, applied and manipulated by the West from their deeply rooted self-attribution, privileged prerogative and de facto assumption of the leadership role of the world.

There is, however, increasing resentment and disillusionment, particularly, in the Global South as to the credibility and validity of the world order which in fact has been simmering over decades to emancipate from the penalising mechanisms and pre-dominance of the West. It is being vociferously contested as legitimacy-deficit paternalism, triumphalism and often double-standard global hegemony to conduct and influence international affairs.

At the same time, a strong cultural and civilisational consciousness, which is dismissive of the delusive supremacy of Western civilisation, has swayed and deluged the globe. The multi-civilisational world in which the dormant civilisations which were erstwhile stifled, dehumanised and depersonalised through the cultivated institution of slavery and colonial exploitative and extractive injustice for over last 200 years are keen to re-assert and shape a more equitable world order.

China, for instance, has manifestly demonstrated to regain its civilisational dominance and erase the pain of century of humiliation from 1842 to 1949. Its rapid economic and military ascent over the past four decades is viewed as a possible alternative model to redefine the world order. China assiduously advocates global harmony through dialogue and cooperation, emphasising to build a world community with a shared future for mankind. The core tenet comprises two key visions: "an equal and orderly multipolar world" and "a universally beneficial and inclusive economic globalization" to reduce the Western influence, reform global governance and global security architecture and abridge the technology and digital divide.

This emerging complex, chaotic and uncertain world order is clearly indicative of the decline of the old and dawn of a volatile future, both for the developed and developing countries. The future, to a great extent hinges on whether the global reordering leads to collaborative multi-polarity, sovereign equality and peaceful co-existence defined by dialogue, equity and shared responsibility or divisive fragmentation driven by ideological divide and competitive and confrontational nationalism.

The consequences will indeed be horrendous for the humanity if the adversarial adventurism and myopic belligerence of the narcissistic leadership coupled with the callous and brutal use of raw power and military might become the standard modus operandi to regulate the national and international affairs — the damage will be irreversible in terms of renunciation of the principles of sovereign equality, human rights, peaceful resolution of disputes and multilateralism. The future, however, is not as yet written or cast in stone; it is the collective responsibility of us all to bequeath a better world to the generations to come.

As regards Pakistan and its locus and possible role on the global landscape, the country has to adopt a rational, inclusive and well-thought-out strategy within its unique and broader geo-strategic context to safeguard and secure its national interests and at the same time re-emerge as one of the key actors in the regional and international realms. Ill luck would have it, the country is plagued by worsening economic situation, prolonged political uncertainty and daunting internal and external security threats.

It is absolutely imperative for the country to strengthen democratic governance with a view to garnering collective national will, rethink the relevance of oft invoked "security doctrine", reduce axis driven dependency and over-reliance on conventional approach and evolve a more dynamic and perceptive choice to protect its autonomy, sovereignty and national stature. The magnitude of challenges ahead is enormous and daunting but some basic though difficult decisions will have to be taken based on the larger interest of the country to carve out and regain its pre-eminent role in the world.