Pakistan done with Afghan Taliban?

The latest round of high-stakes talks between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban in Istanbul ended in yet another stalemate, reinforcing the growing perception that Islamabad's patience with Kabul has run out. Both sides left the table blaming the other for the deadlock, despite Turkiye and Qatar mediating.

According to officials, multiple sessions were held over the past few days, but the gap between the two sides proved too wide to bridge. And "the [latest] round [of talks] has ended without agreement", according to a senior security source. Also, Information Minister Atta Tarar has made it clear that Islamabad's expectations from Kabul remain unmet.

The collapse of the Istanbul round is hardly surprising. Tensions between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban have been simmering for months. Pakistan insists that the TTP leadership and fighters enjoy safe havens inside Afghanistan, operating with impunity under the watch of the Taliban regime. The Afghan Taliban, in turn, accuse Pakistan of violating Afghan sovereignty through occasional airstrikes on TTP positions and applying "political and military pressure".

Pakistan's frustration, however, runs deeper. For years, Islamabad invested political capital, diplomatic energy and intelligence leverage to facilitate the Taliban's return to power in 2021, expecting that a friendly regime in Kabul would secure its western border and curb anti-Pakistan militancy. But it got the opposite: a surge in TTP attacks, a deteriorating security situation in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, and an increasingly defiant Taliban government that refuses to acknowledge Pakistan's concerns.

The Istanbul talks were seen as a last-ditch attempt at salvaging a working relationship. But even before the meeting began, expectations were low. Pakistan entered the room demanding tangible steps against the TTP while the Taliban side viewed these demands as "unrealistic" and politically motivated.

The tone from Islamabad after the talks has been unusually blunt. Information Minister Tarar accused the Taliban of failing to fulfil not only their bilateral commitments but also the international obligations made under the 2021 Doha Agreement. His statement that Pakistan "will not support any measures by the Taliban government that are against the interests of the Afghan people or its neighbours" was a thinly veiled warning, suggesting that a major policy shift may already be underway.

Behind the scenes, officials say Pakistan is reviewing its entire Afghan policy, including the future of diplomatic engagement, trade facilitation and border management. The closure of the Torkham and Chaman crossings, mass deportation of undocumented Afghan nationals and stricter visa controls all point to a hardening stance.

For Pakistan, the collapse of the Istanbul talks is more than just another diplomatic setback. It may mark the end of a long, painful illusion that the Taliban could be partners in regional stability. Islamabad's messaging now emphasises self-reliance and deterrence, not dialogue. "Pakistan will continue to take all essential measures for the protection of its citizens and national sovereignty," Tarar declared in a statement that signals a possible shift toward unilateral action.

In practical terms, that could mean enhanced border fortifications, pre-emptive military strikes on TTP hideouts and deeper coordination with regional players who share Pakistan's concerns including China, Iran and CARs. For Kabul, however, the risk is isolation. With relations deteriorating not just with Pakistan but also with Iran and Western donors, the Taliban regime may soon find itself diplomatically cornered.

The Istanbul impasse has thus clarified what many in Islamabad have quietly acknowledged for months: Pakistan is effectively done with the Afghan Taliban. Unless a dramatic course correction occurs in Kabul, which seems highly unlikely, the two neighbours are heading toward a prolonged period of cold hostility.

For now, Pakistan's message is unmistakably clear: goodwill has limits and patience has expired.