Paradigm shift in China, India relations

Former British prime minister Lord Palmerston, during a speech in the House of Common on March 1, 1848, said: "We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."

News reports during the last few months on the changing pattern of the Sino-Indian relations substantiate the authenticity of the above quote.

The recent visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to New Delhi in which he held wide ranging talks with his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval tend to reflect a degree of paradigm shift in the Sino-Indian ties. The Chinese foreign minister, commenting about his visit to New Delhi, stated: "History and reality prove once again that a healthy and stable China-India relationship serves the fundamental and long-term interests of both of our countries." Following the deadly border clash between India and China in 2020, relations between the two giants of Asia reached its lowest ebb. Even then, China remained India's largest trading partner with the bilateral trade touching 136 billion dollars a year.

The Indian Prime Minister is scheduled to visit China to attend SCO conference on August 31. Prime Minister Modi wrote in a post on X: "I look forward to our next meeting in Tianjin on the sidelines of SCO summit. Stable, predictable, constructive ties between India and China will contribute significantly to regional as well as global peace and prosperity." Following the visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister to New Delhi, it was reported by Reuters that the two sides agreed to resume direct flights which were suspended because of Covid-19 and augment flow of trade and investment. Furthermore, the two neighbours also agreed to hold talks on issues relating to withdrawal of troops from their borders by establishing a working group to consult and coordinate border affairs and advance demarcation negotiations.

India has expressed reservations over the construction of a mega dam by China in Tibet on Yarlung Tsangpo river (also called Brahamputra River). The issue came up for discussion during the Chinese foreign minister's visit to New Delhi. China tried to address Delhi's misgivings that the proposed dam would have an adverse impact on the interests of India as a lower riparian state.

How and why the Sino-Indian relations are witnessing a positive paradigm shift needs to be gauged from an analytical approach. For around two decades, India and the United States had been in a strategic partnership to contain China. India, as a major member of QUAD - composed of Australia, India, Japan and the United States - focused on mitigating Chinese influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The equation between Narendra Modi and Donald Trump, during the latter's first stint at the White House, was a role model. But the same has been reversed under Trump 2.0.

Border issue between China and India which led to the outbreak of an armed conflict between the two neighbours in 1962 and 2020 aggravated their relations to the extent that New Delhi found the United States as a partner in denying Beijing a strategic space in the Asia-Pacific region. India also sees China as a strategic allay of Pakistan which was proved during the May 7-10 war. It is argued in New Delhi that India was not confronting Pakistan in the war but had to deal with limitless Chinese support to Pakistan in challenging its air force. It was only after a chain of events - following Trump's claim that he arranged the ceasefire between India and Pakistan on May 10 and his offer to mediate to resolve the age-old Kashmir dispute - that New Delhi changed its approach of strategic partnership with the United States. Modi viewed ostensible US tilt in favour of Pakistan in the recent past as a logical reason to mend fences with China.

Famous foreign policy dictum that there are no permanent enemies and allies but permanent interests suit the current shift in the Sino-Indian ties. The roar of the "China, India brothers" slogan that was famous during the formative phase of the Sino-Indian relations faded because of the border conflict between the two giant neighbours and the growing ties between China and Pakistan. From early 1960s till 2024, India and China remained as adversaries despite their huge trade relations. Now, changing interests have compelled New Delhi to review its ties with the United States and China.

The perceived paradigm shift in the Sino-Indian relations is now a reality and needs to be examined from three sides.

First, for the first time in several decades, the reality and trust factor in the US-Indian relations is being discussed. During the early cold war days when China had adversarial relations with the United States, India had cordial relations with China. But following the Sino-Soviet split, the deepening Sino-Pak ties, the antagonism between China and the United States and New Delhi's growing territorial conflict with Beijing, India's relations with China got aggravated leading to the 1962 border war. Both the Soviet Union and the United States supported India in its war with China. Pakistan acted as a bridge state between Communist China and the United States in 1971 leading to a paradigm shift in their ties. During those days, India maintained a policy of non-alignment but following the end of the cold war, its interests changed vis-à-vis the US, and the two sides entered into strategic partnership in 2005, seemingly to contain China. But recent events have compelled India to question trust and reliability of the United States when it gave preference to Pakistan over India.

Second, viewing Trump's tilt towards Pakistan and imposition of 50% trade tariff on Indian exports to the United States following New Delhi's rejection of American pressure to not buy oil from Russia, India decided to mend fences with China. India made it clear that it will not compromise on its national interests and will not be used by the United States against China. Beijing also reciprocated to the Indian gestures believing that a joint Sino-Indian stance will enable the two sides to cope with the American pressure. India also thinks that mending fences with China will serve to weaken the Sino-Pak strategic ties.

Third, India also knows that unlike the United States, China is more reliable and a the Sino-Indian-Russian axis will have help transform the world from bipolar to multipolar.