Lessons for India, Israel and Pakistan

Should India draw any lessons from the latest fiasco that an arrogant Israel suffered? Technological superiority can guarantee defence but it can hardly enforce total submission by a nation that prides itself on thousands of years of nationhood – also gelled by a common religious belief.

Let us first glance through the Indian conduct post Pahalgam. It unilaterally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and dared to establish a neo-normal by sending drones and missiles deep inside Pakistan between May 7 and 10. Regardless of who did it and whether the entire episode was somehow multilaterally scripted, the Indian government's narrative evoked both negativity as well as skepticism at home and abroad. Officials mostly hid behind ambiguity, pretending innocence wrapped in a self-righteousness. Not many abroad bought the Indian projection of being a victim of Pakistan-driven terrorism after the May 7 strikes deep inside Pakistan.

The consternation caused in Tehran by India's explicit support for Israel – no condemnation at all – its refrain from calling out Israel for its aggression, and its refusal to sign off the SCO statement during the conflict that called out Israel for the violence against Iran has had its impact too. India endured more isolation – if not insult – at the SCO Defence Ministers/Security Advisors huddle at Qingdao, China (June 26) when the joint communiqué made a reference to "militant activities in Balochistan", but made no mention of the April 22 attack in Kashmir.

In protest, India refused to endorse the statement, accusing it of disproportionately highlighting Balochistan-related terrorism while downplaying or ignoring attacks affecting India - a stance seen as favouring Pakistan.

The toll such self-serving posturing – during the Iran-Israel conflict and at the SCO security officials conference – took became evident in a statement by the Iranian Embassy in New Delhi; it thanked "all honourable people and political parties of India" for standing by Iran. Surprisingly, the only glaring omission from this was the Indian government – no mention of it at all – an expression presumably of the Iranian displeasure over the duplicitous attitude of India, a non-aligned country that touts democratic credentials. More similar setbacks await Indian diplomacy in coming weeks and months unless the Modi cohorts enforce a review of the country's policies.

In contrast, the Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghaddam, expressed deep gratitude to the people and government of Pakistan, saying, "The Iranian nation will never forget the brotherly support extended by the Pakistani people and the government."

This duplicity is not lost on China or Russia either – both of whom seem to be reconnecting with Iran, stand firm with Pakistan and subtly snubbing India, albeit in a diplomatic offensive. These countries also watch as India now has put Bangladesh on notice for renegotiating the Ganga Waters Treaty (GWT) that had been signed on December 12, 1996.

India, according to an NDTV report, has conveyed to Dhaka its desire for a new 10-15 year duration treaty on the pretext that it requires more water to meet its developmental needs – as if there is no such need for the lower riparian Bangladesh.

"Before Pahalgam, we were inclined to extend the treaty for another 30 years, but the situation changed drastically afterward," the report quoted a Ministry of External Affairs official as saying.

Again a very self-serving approach – premised in the Pahalgam incident – by the upper riparian India, unlike China which as the upper riparian for India always insists on dialogue and warns against actions that may harm the neighbour.

As for Israel, it overlooked the fact that Iran was well-prepared for dealing with the Israeli assault because of the perennial state-of-conflict and the shadow wars through proxies between the two states. The carte-blanche for the genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza – that Israel got from the US and key NATO allies after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack – apparently obscured the Israeli assessment of the Iranian missile capacity. A unified and unflinching Tehran – the clergy led by the Ayatollah, the IRGC and the Iranian People at large – also surprised the cold-blooded, self-righteous Israeli warmongers. Israel had to eventually swallow the bitter pill i.e. acceptance of a face-saving ceasefire – as "commanded" by the US President.

India had apparently taken cue from the Israeli high-handedness vis a vis the helpless Palestinians and the Lebanese when it decided to launch trans-boundary attacks on Pakistan. Both seemed to over-rely on their technological prowess – assuming the adversary would melt away once subjected to kinetic attacks.

Both India and Israel simply underestimated the Iranian and the Pakistani national resolve. They also forgot one critical element: technological superiority can inflict damage on the rivals but is no guarantee for defeating the national resolve – more so in the case of Iran which boasts history and culture spanned over thousands of years.

Common religious faith of the majority – the Shia school of thought – only further solidified the cultural pride in the face of the Israeli aggression. Armed with nuclear weapons and fully backed by the time-trusted friend China, Pakistan too blunted the Indian belligerence and the diplomatic/communications offensive. Israeli and Indian aggressive posturing has enforced fresh strategic realignment.

Finally, the unravelling of a massive Mossad-led espionage network in Tehran and elsewhere in the country must raise alarm in Pakistan too. Such networks are the key to kinetic and cyber invasions which can compromise national security. And hence the need for urgent closer cooperation among the SCO nations to guard against such hazards.