Soaring cotton imports

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Pakistan's textile sector, the backbone of our economy, faces an existential threat as cotton imports skyrocket to alarming levels. Recent data reveals a 114% year-on-year surge in the cotton import bill, already over $2.5 billion in the first 10 months of FY25, compared with $1.2 billion in the first 10 months of 2024 and a full-year target of just $1.9 billion.

This dependency is not merely a trade imbalance but a symptom of deeper structural failures that threaten the stability of the broader economy.

Domestic output is down by about one-third this year, currently standing at just under 5.5 million bales. Part of the blame is on climate shocks, including erratic monsoons and temperature fluctuations which have disrupted yields.

However, while policymakers and industry groups love to blame invisible enemies, the worst offenders are still homegrown — obsolete farming practices, substandard seeds and unchecked pest infestations, which have been aggravated by the crash of wheat prices in the previous season depriving many farmers of revenue that could have been reinvested into the cotton crop.

The combination of high, expensive imports and a bad domestic crop has increased prices for the textile sector which will, in turn, undercut exports as profit margins will take a hit, and some buyers may not be willing to pay higher prices if textile producers cannot fully absorb the additional cost.

The cotton crisis is emblematic of the overall rot in the agriculture sector, especially since cotton is the key raw material in our most significant export sector. The government needs to find cost-effective ways to modernise agriculture by facilitating the use of high-yield seeds, precision farming and climate-resilient practices, while also making it easier to import raw materials such as seeds. Imports should be a stopgap solution for bad crop seasons rather than the norm.

Without decisive action, the textile sector's $16.6 billion export engine could seriously stall, with repercussions echoing across Pakistan's fiscal and social landscape.