Buoyed projections?

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The government's projection of an exalted growth rate of 4.2% for the next fiscal year has made jaws drop. On what premise it is so confident is hard to guess, but the ground realities suggest a dismal picture. The beleaguered dispensation is pinning its hopes on tight monetary control and effective management of the economy – but that is no small task.

All the projected targets for the ongoing fiscal year were missed as the economy achieved 2.68% growth as against the projected 3.6%. The agrarian sector merely posted 0.56% growth and the country is now on the verge of importing grains. So are the pathetic statistics with industry and other plum portfolios.

The euphoria seems based on the sole achievement that the economy has swelled to $411 billion with a per capita income rise to $1,824. Likewise, the services, transport, storage, construction, information and communication sectors have managed moderate upward trends. All this seems to have encouraged the government to propose new growth targets of 4.4% in commodity-producing sectors; 4.5% in agriculture sector, 3.5% in LSM and 3% in mining.

Inflation is being seen at 7.5%. But there is a surprising squeeze too that the government is eyeing: the construction sector which grew by 6.6% this year is targeted at only 3.8%. So is the case with electricity, gas and water supply sectors that are nourished by 29% this year, but are projected to grow by only 3.5% next year. This is untenable and what crosscurrents they will leave behind is another enigma of sorts.

On the international front, there is a tight-walking for the government as the IMF is too inquisitive, having almost torpedoed the plans on crypto, and insisting on tax collection to be raised to Rs16 trillion. On the other hand, the Planning Commission says it has only left with Rs880 billion and only high-priority developmental projects will see the light of the day.

The rare hope-line is the largesse of the ABD which has doled out $800 million to strengthen fiscal sustainability and improve public financial management programmes.