The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a historic rally in the outgoing week, with the KSE-100 index surging by a record 10,123 points (+9.45%) in a single day, hitting the upper circuit breaker on Monday and closing the week at an all-time high of 119,649 points – a weekly gain of 11.6%, the highest in five years.
The rally was fueled by a confluence of powerful triggers, including a US-brokered ceasefire between India and Pakistan, fresh IMF inflows totaling $2.4 billion under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), and a current account surplus of $1.88 billion in 10MFY25. On a day-on-day basis, as tensions began to ease, the PSX experienced a skyrocketing start to the week.
On Monday, it recorded a historic rise of over 10,000 points, achieving the highest single-day close ever. The index ended the day at 117,298, having gained 10,123 points, or 9.45%.
On the second day, the bull-run continued as the KSE-100 index extended its gains by penetrating the 118,000 level and closed the day up 1,278 points, taking cumulative gains since Friday's opening to over 14.5%, or 15,050 points. However, on Wednesday, trading activity remained volatile and closed slightly lower as a mix of investor optimism and caution prevailed. At the end of trading, the benchmark KSE-100 index posted a marginal loss of 39 points.
On Thursday, the PSX roared back to life as the index soared 1,425 points, or 1.20%, not only recouping the previous day's thin loss but also closing at an all-time high. The bourse ended the week lower, when it dropped 313 points after a range-bound session. Arif Habib Limited (AHL), in its weekly review, wrote that the KSE-100 index took a sharp turn and skyrocketed into the green zone on Monday, hitting the upper cap of the circuit breaker. The index posted a historic gain of 10,123 points (+9.45%) – the highest ever in both absolute and percentage terms.
The rally followed a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, brokered by the US, who also expressed the intention to enhance trade ties with both countries. In addition, Pakistan secured IMF's approval for $1 billion under the EFF and $1.4 billion under the RSF, it said. On the macro front, the current account recorded a surplus of $1,880 million in 10MFY25. The large-scale manufacturing (LSM) output grew 1.79% year-on-year (YoY) in March 2025.
In the T-bill auction (first post-monetary policy), the SBP raised Rs664 billion vs target of Rs550 billion, while yields dropped sharply by 66-90 basis points (bps) across all tenors. Additionally, the MSCI added three Pakistani companies to the Frontier Markets (FM) Index and four to the FM Small-cap Index.
All these indicators reflected a strong positive momentum, driving the KSE-100 past the 119k level to close at a new all-time high on Thursday, AHL said. The SBP's reserves rose $71 million to $10.4 billion.
Overall, the PSX was the best-performing market on a week-on-week (WoW) basis, posting its highest gain in five years, and closed at 119,649 points (+11.6% WoW).
Sector-wise, positive contributions came from banks (2,711 points), E&P (1,937 points), fertiliser (1,338 points), cement (1,249 points) and tech (666 points). Stock-wise, positive contributors were UBL (922 points), Fauji Fertiliser Company (876 points), Pakistan Petroleum (750 points), OGDC (581 points) and Lucky Cement (519 points).
Foreigners' selling was witnessed during the week, which came in at $9.13 million compared to net buying of $1.52 million last week. Major selling was witnessed in E&P companies ($5.98 million).
Average volumes arrived at 685 million shares (up 34.8% WoW) while average value stood at $144.2 million (up 47.1%).
JS Global analyst Abdul Basit wrote that Pakistan had initiated virtual technical-level discussions with the IMF on the upcoming FY26 budget, with formal policy-level negotiations to commence next week.
The government has approved the phased privatisation of 24 companies, including PIA. As per PBS data, the LSM index recorded a 1.8% YoY increase in March, marking a return to positive growth after four consecutive months of decline. In the recently held T-bill auction, the SBP raised Rs664 billion against the target of Rs550 billion, with yields dropping 66 to 90 bps across different maturities, he said.
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