Climate change: Lost in Translation

I foresee water as a substantial threat in future, larger than terrorism, considerably more than political problems.

One would most certainly make mockery of themselves if they were to discuss climate change and global warming with Pakistani politicians. Some might deem it as a spurious theory and a waste of their time, while others — with some insight — would hesitate, as solutions to these issues take more years to resolve than their term time in office. Being a global issue, there is an obvious free-riding problem: no one country is responsible for rising temperatures, changing climates, etc. Altruism is myopic and building a cleaner and safer planet for tomorrow is not yet on the agenda of our resource-strapped government. Issue closed, case adjourned? Hold your horses.

At the outset, this geographical area, in which we reside, was dry and arid. Our soil map shows that without the development of glaciers on our mountains and the more recent man-made canal irrigation infrastructure, agricultural production would have been near impossible. We managed well; today, agriculture is the backbone of our economy and we have gained higher yield by using a combination of technologically-advanced seeds, improved water management and modern machinery. However, our irrigation and drainage infrastructure is in dire need of replacement and the government cannot raise enough funds for new infrastructure, let alone maintenance.

According to the UN Regional Assessment Report on Atmospheric Brown Clouds: thick clouds of brown soot and other pollutants are hanging over South Asia, darkening cities, disrupting the monsoon and accelerating the melting of the mountain glaciers. These clouds exacerbate the effect of global warming by depositing soot on the glaciers, which captures more solar heat than white snow and ice. It says that at this “current rate of retreat” these glaciers and snow packs are “expected to shrink by as much as 75 per cent before the year 2050”. Faster glacial melt combined with sea water rising (salt water intrusion) will make irrigation and urban infrastructure extremely vulnerable within years.

We can already see it happening: severe temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, torrential rains and floods followed by periods of drought, have, distraught millions. The deluge in Sindh has washed away millions of dollars worth of crops. The worst affected are the fishermen and farmers most of whom live below the poverty line, and who rely for their livelihood on dwindling natural resources. It is time for policy-makers to translate concepts of climate change and global warming into words that mean something real and tangible to ordinary people. Since all the immediate effects of climate change are water related, therefore the language to use is ‘water security’ this is a hot topic in the political arena and one that does raise a few eyebrows in parliament.

There is some good news. Pakistan’s climate policy-making received reinvigorated focus when the government acknowledged the fact that the end-July 2010 floods resulted from a confluence of events possibly associated with a warming planet and increased climate variability. The Arabian Sea region has seen a threefold increase of severe cyclonic events in the cyclone-prone months in the past few decades. These and other climatic changes are expected to aggravate recent food price rises and the consequent challenge among vulnerable populations. With a possible long-term trend emerging for the Arabian Sea, and with South Asia becoming more arid during dry seasons and wetter during monsoons, the chief concerns are for impact on water resources, food production and ultimately well-being.

I foresee water to be a substantial threat in future, larger than terrorism and considerably more than our political problems. Unfortunately, many Pakistani politicians are more concerned to tackle short-term problems, using short-term solutions. There is a need for longer ranging policies that are backed by political consensus. Policies should not be limited only until the next elections. Policy-relevant and future-oriented research that contributes to long-term developments in the human condition should be the focus of Pakistani academia and policy think-tanks. There is greater need for engagement between academia, government and politicians on issues of water management, food security and climate change.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 18^th, 2011.