Pakistan’s headline inflation dropped to 0.3% year-on-year in April 2025, down from 0.7% in March, according to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data released Friday. On a month-on-month basis, inflation declined by 0.8%, compared to a 0.9% increase in March and a 0.4% drop in April 2024.
“This is an all-time low considering the rebasing effect,” said a market analyst.
The average Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation during the first 10 months of FY25 stood at 4.73%, a sharp decline from 25.97% recorded in the same period of FY24. Inflation had peaked at 38% in May 2023 but has been on a downward trajectory since.
The latest CPI figure aligns with market expectations. Topline Securities projected inflation would fall below 0.5% in April, driven by a sharp drop in food and electricity prices.
Their forecast placed year-on-year inflation between 0.05% and 0.5%, with a monthly decline of 0.8%, bringing the 10MFY25 average to around 4.87%.
Meanwhile, the State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which meets Monday, is expected to maintain the policy rate at 12%. The rate had been cut by 1,000 basis points since June 2024 from a peak of 22%, before being held steady in March.
Urban and Rural Breakdown
Urban inflation dropped to 0.5% YoY in April, down from 1.2% in March and 19.4% in April 2024. On a monthly basis, it decreased 0.7%.
Rural inflation declined 0.1% YoY, compared to zero change in March and 14.5% in April 2024. Month-on-month, rural CPI fell by 1%.
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