More terror attacks can be expected in Balochistan after Pahalgam: Former high commissioner to India

Commenting on India's actions after Pahalgam, Basit says the Indus Waters Treaty cancellation is largely 'symbolic.'

Abdul Basit, Pakistan’s former high commissioner to India (2014-2017) and ex ambassador to Germany (2012-2014), has warned that New Delhi could launch a military action against Pakistan within days after the recent attack in Pahalgam.

Speaking with The Express Tribune, Basit cited India’s past actions after the 2016 Uri and 2019 Pulwama attacks as precedence. He said the tone of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent speech in Bihar indicated a potential cross-border strike or other tangible measures.

“It can happen across the Line of Control, on our side, and then they would make big claims that they have destroyed launch pads and terror camps,” he said. “Whether it happens in a week's time or in a fortnight’s time, something will happen.”

Basit believes that there are no immediate diplomatic problems for Pakistan especially with regards to the cancellation of the Indus Waters Treaty, however, more terror actions in Balochistan and some other parts of the country can be expected, suggesting Pakistan should brace for further law and order destabilisation.

Turning to India’s announcement of suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, the former High Commissioner described the move as largely “symbolic” due to India’s current lack of infrastructure to divert the western rivers.

“At this stage, India cannot stop the flow of water,” he said. “The Indus Waters Treaty can neither be terminated, nor suspended, nor amended unilaterally. It’s a permanent treaty unless both parties agree.”

He urged Pakistan to engage the World Bank, the treaty’s broker and guarantor, and to prepare a robust diplomatic and legal response.

“India is not complying with its international obligations,” the diplomat added. “So much for the world’s largest democracy and its aspirations for a UN Security Council seat.”

Despite the escalation, he noted that there was no immediate threat to Pakistan’s water access under the treaty.